Pandemic walk heat maps

As part of playing around with my GPS data from my exercise walks since I wanted to make a heat map showing the likelihood of being in any particular place.

Here’s one I made using Seth Golub’s heatmap.py Python script (radius 5, decay 0.75):

I also made one in QGIS. First I converted the tracks to a set of points in a CSV file. Then I created a spatial index of the point layer, created a hexagonal grid of polygons of a sensible size, and counted the number of points in each. Then I rendered that as brighter or darker hexagons:

Here are the hexagons semi-transparent and rendered on a faux watercolour of the Toronto area:

The walks have sometimes been lonely and sometimes been scary, but they have been the main thing getting me out of the house and providing exercise during the pandemic. They do make me feel like I have a broader understanding of the city, though walking through a neighbourhood at night with headphones on only gives you a certain kind of perception.

Saying no to climate solutions

In This Changes Everything, Naomi Klein highlights the utility of a “Blockadia” strategy to keep fossil fuels in the ground through local land-based resistance campaigns. As George Hoberg raises in his latest book, and many others have discussed, the inclination of the environmental movement runs more toward stopping and preventing things than toward building solutions. For one thing, they get caught up in what I see as false narratives that corporations are exclusively to blame for climate change, or that somehow the world would be able to use drastically less energy. Environmentalists also tend to see any environmental impact as grounds for opposing a project. Impact on birds is a reason to resist wind; impact on the landscape is a reason to oppose solar; offshore wind may ‘mesmerize crabs.’ They point out that even if we bring climate change under control we will have problems with lost biodiversity, toxic pollution, and many other issues — and thus spread their skepticism about electric vehicles or battery power because of the mineral resource requirements.

All this leaves us in a position where environmentalists are accurately raising the alarm about climate change, while rarely suggesting a path forward for replacing that energy and for providing new energy to the parts of the world that are developing economically. As David MacKay put it at the end of his book:

Because Britain currently gets 90% of its energy from fossil fuels, it’s no surprise that getting off fossil fuels requires big, big changes — a total change in the transport fleet; a complete change of most building heating systems; and a 10- or 20-fold increase in green power.

Given the general tendency of the public to say “no” to wind farms, “no” to nuclear power, “no” to tidal barrages — “no” to anything other than fossil fuel power systems — I am worried that we won’t actually get off fossil fuels when we need to. Instead, we’ll settle for half-measures: slightly-more-efficient fossil-fuel power stations, cars, and home heating systems; a fig-leaf of a carbon trading system; a sprinkling of wind turbines; an inadequate number of nuclear power stations.

We need to choose a plan that adds up. It is possible to make a plan that adds up, but it’s not going to be easy.

We need to stop saying no and start saying yes. We need to stop the Punch and Judy show and get building.

If you would like an honest, realistic energy policy that adds up, please tell all your political representatives and prospective political candidates.

Global energy use is about 576 EJ (5.8 x 1020 J), and world electricity consumption to be about 63 EJ (6.3 x 1019 J). Giving all 7.7 billion people on Earth the 125 kWh/day energy use of the average European would require energy production of 962.5 billion kWh per day (3.5 x 1018 J), or 351.3 trillion kWh per year (1.3 x 1021 J). That’s equivalent to about 45,000 1,000 MW power stations. If we want to avoid climate change in a way that is at all politically plausible, we need to get building.

Related:

Night hike

At 9pm yesterday, I decided that I couldn’t focus enough for thesis work and to take a walk. My friend Tristan had recently plotted out some hiking routes on my computer, including one up the Don Valley from Old Mill station, crossing over east near Sheppard, then north up the Black Creek trail.

I wanted to see how accessible the start point is from my new place by foot, and then when I got there I decided to try the up-river segment. I got to Sheppard and carried on upriver, past Finch and ultimately as far as Thackeray Park. When I got to a fence blocking further progress, I saw that I had gone 24 km. I hadn’t been particularly planning anything, including a long walk, and I didn’t have any food or water with me or anywhere to buy them in the Humber Valley, but I felt fresh and like I could do the same distance again. So I decided to redo the river path south to where I entered the valley, then continue south to Old Mill station. After figuring that getting to Old Mill would put me around 43-4 km of walking, I decided that if my feet felt up to it then I would walk enough along the Bloor subway line to push it past 50 km:

This ended up being my longest walk of the pandemic so far, but it was around 7 ˚C and dark and I felt comfortable in just a puffer and wool buff and never thirsty. I also saw virtually nobody on the path until I started to see exercise keeners after 6:30 – 7:00am. I don’t think I saw anybody on foot or close by between entering the valley and reaching the scenic view of the railway bridge just north of Dundas Street West.

The whole route is marked by deep forest on either side (by Toronto standards), some magnificent willows along the riverfront just north of Lawrence Avenues, and a whole series of pedestrian bridges big and small used to cross the river while following the path.

Divestment announced at the U of T Governing Council

At yesterday’s meeting, President Gertler announced the new divestment policy. I transcribed the relevant parts of the meeting from the audio:

[16:58] President Meric Gertler: With the latest UN climate change conference, known as COP26, taking place in Glasgow beginning this Sunday, the world’s attention will be focused on the urgency of the climate crisis and measures to address it. In anticipation of this meeting I wrote to our community yesterday providing an update on the university’s approach to investment, operations, and engagement and announcing some new measures to help tackle the huge challenge of climate change. In particular I announced that UTAM will be divesting from its fossil fuel holdings in our endowment — a fund that in total is about $4 billion including some other long-term investments — and that divestment process will begin immediately.

UTAM undertakes to fully divest from direct investments in fossil fuels by the end of 2022, so roughly within the next 12 months. And moreover to divest from indirect investments in fossil fuels, that is in the form of pooled and co-mingled funds that are managed by third-party investment managers, as soon as possible and by no later than 2030. Also, to allocate at least 10% of the endowment, so roughly about $400 million, towards sustainable, low-carbon, and green investment strategies by 2025. And to achieve net-zero emissions in the endowment portfolio by 2050. Related to that last goal, UTAM has become the first university asset manager, and University of Toronto the first university in the world, to join a group called the Net Zero Asset Owner Alliance: an alliance which requires us to set and meet five year targets, increasingly stringent, targets that lead us towards the net zero objective by 2050 at the latest.

[18:55] These new commitments build on the tremendous progress already achieved by UTAM to reduce the carbon footprint of its long-term investments by 37% as of this past June 30th. That’s against a 40% reduction goal that it had set for itself by 2030. And in this case the carbon footprint is measured as tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions per million dollars invested. Over the same period UTAM has also shrunk absolute carbon emissions in its portfolio by more than 21%. These reductions have resulted from UTAM’s use of an ESG framework to assess all of its long-term investments in the energy sector, but also across the rest of the economy. The sectors of manufacturing, retail, transportation, construction, and agriculture. Having made this much progress this quickly, and having reduced fossil fuel holdings to roughly 6% of our long-term investments.

The time was right to set new goals, to decarbonize our investments still further. We hope that these actions will inspire other institutional investors and governments at home and abroad to take similar actions, and to accelerate the transition to a low carbon economy as they tackle the challenge of climate change. These announcements will complement U of T’s other ambitious plans to fight climate change, including our new climate positive St. George campus plan, which Governors heard about back in the September workshop, a plan that will convert the campus into a net carbon sink by 2050. Our local, national, and global leadership organizations and initiatives like the Canadian Universities’ Climate Charter, the UC3 group of North American universities, and the U7+ global alliance of universities, each of which is working on climate-change-related initiatives.

[21:02] A lot of this work has been championed by our very own Committee on the Environment, Climate Change, and Sustainability, co-chaired by Professor John Robinson and Ron Saporta. For example, pioneering the development of sustainability pathways that students can pursue in any program of study, as well as making available opportunities for students to engage in campus-as-a-living-lab experiences where they can engage in climate-related experiential learning opportunities. And of course this also is complemented by the tremendous amount of research being done across our three campuses, supporting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals, for example we have a new institutional strategic initiative focused on climate-positive technologies, the development and application of energy-saving technologies and practices.

[21:57] So this is, I think you will agree, a comprehensive effort on our part, kind of a watershed moment in the history of the university, and I think contributing to a very important moment in the history of the world. I will say that since the announcement was made yesterday, the response thus far has been overwhelmingly positive. Let me shift to a couple of other items… [ends at 22:20]

[54:00] Meric Gertler: Shashi Kant, I see you have your hand up so we’ll go to you next.

[54:04] Shashi Kant: Thank you Chair, and thank you so much Meric and Trevor for updating us on everything. So first of all, I just want to express Meric on behalf of all my students, and myself, and the staff your leadership in climate change and for the investment and the carbon sink announced, and I think we and our students proudly can say the university walk the talk in terms of sustainability, it’s not that we are talking about sustainability. Also there is the carbon sink only for the St. George campus, I guess the other two campuses will also join on that point soon.

[54:50] I am moved, I am happy with our policy and our commitment for climate change. I am also disturbed, very disturbed on approach to sexual harassment… [ends at 55:05]

[1:03:00] Meric Gertler: Susan, I think you are up next.

Susan Froom: Thank you, and thank you as well to yourself and President Gertler for your reports. I do echo Shashi’s concerns around harassment, I’ll speak to that next item , but now I do want to say thank you to President Gertler for your wonderful announcement yesterday around divestment from fossil fuel investments. It’s a fantastic step forward, I’m glad the university is doing that, and I am very much hoping that U of T will continue to be a leader in this regard and particularly with President Gertler’s latest appointment that may be even easier to do, let’s hope so.

[1:04:10] I also wanted to acknowledge that in the announcement President Gertler did pause to thank the students that pushed the administration to do the right thing, and I just wanted to recall before this body that it was back in March of 2014 that it was the U of T chapter of 350.org that first put this issue on the table formally. There has been a lot of back and forth since then. In some ways President Gertler and the administration went beyond what was asked, which is admirable. In some ways, not as far, which is one reason the challenge kept coming. So it’s something that I think we as a body need to feel good about. This is part of what Governing Council does, it’s a place where these ideas can come forward, can be brought to fruition. Where it allows student activists to bring forward their ideas and the administration to carefully ponder them and implement them. So kudos all around and let’s keep this fight going. [end at 1:05:28]

[1:59:22] Speakers unknown: Thank you Mister Chair. The board received a comprehensive presentation on the [fundraising / development] campaign’s academic priorities and its goals. As part of the ensuing discussions, Mr. Palmer addressed a member’s concern about investment of endowment funds in the fossil fuel industry. Mr. Palmer stated that the campaign would pursue funding for a wide range of academic priorities related to climate change and sustainability, including those referenced earlier in the meeting such as clean tech, climate policy, climate science, etc. He also noted that students were the primary beneficiaries of campaign funding priorities and donations. In response to another member’s question about whether the university’s endowment policies related to fossil fuel divestment would have an impact on fundraising results, Mr. Palmer stated that to date they have not diminished the university’s ability to raise funds and he expected that track record of success would continue into the public phase of the new campaign. That concludes my report. [ends at 2:00:27]