Quebec floods

This Montreal Gazette story opens with a line which I expect will become increasingly commonly heard as climate change impacts worsen: “Premier François Legault said Sunday it might be necessary to force people in flood zones to move away to avoid taxpayers having to constantly pay to repair their homes.”

That seems sure to be one of the big sources of disruption: people living in especially vulnerable places, getting hit over and over by extreme weather, and facing pressure to relocate, all while feeling put out and entitled to keep living as they did before.

People who currently profit from fossil fuels want compensation if they are forced to stop, and people suffering the consequences of fossil fuels want compensation for their losses. The anonomyzing gulf between emissions in one place and impacts in another threaten to leave everyone unsatisfied. Meanwhile, more and more places whose habitability we have taken for granted may become unlivable as storms worsen, sea levels rise, and water scarcity gets harsher.

Greta Thunberg to the British Parliament

I was fortunate to be born in a time and place where everyone told us to dream big; I could become whatever I wanted to. I could live wherever I wanted to. People like me had everything we needed and more. Things our grandparents could not even dream of. We had everything we could ever wish for and yet now we may have nothing.

Now we probably don’t even have a future any more.

Because that future was sold so that a small number of people could make unimaginable amounts of money. It was stolen from us every time you said that the sky was the limit, and that you only live once.

You lied to us. You gave us false hope. You told us that the future was something to look forward to. And the saddest thing is that most children are not even aware of the fate that awaits us. We will not understand it until it’s too late. And yet we are the lucky ones. Those who will be affected the hardest are already suffering the consequences. But their voices are not heard.

Is my microphone on? Can you hear me?

Around the year 2030, 10 years 252 days and 10 hours away from now, we will be in a position where we set off an irreversible chain reaction beyond human control, that will most likely lead to the end of our civilisation as we know it. That is unless in that time, permanent and unprecedented changes in all aspects of society have taken place, including a reduction of CO2 emissions by at least 50%.

And please note that these calculations are depending on inventions that have not yet been invented at scale, inventions that are supposed to clear the atmosphere of astronomical amounts of carbon dioxide.

Furthermore, these calculations do not include unforeseen tipping points and feedback loops like the extremely powerful methane gas escaping from rapidly thawing arctic permafrost.

Nor do these scientific calculations include already locked-in warming hidden by toxic air pollution. Nor the aspect of equity – or climate justice – clearly stated throughout the Paris agreement, which is absolutely necessary to make it work on a global scale.

We must also bear in mind that these are just calculations. Estimations. That means that these “points of no return” may occur a bit sooner or later than 2030. No one can know for sure. We can, however, be certain that they will occur approximately in these timeframes, because these calculations are not opinions or wild guesses.

These projections are backed up by scientific facts, concluded by all nations through the IPCC. Nearly every single major national scientific body around the world unreservedly supports the work and findings of the IPCC.

Did you hear what I just said? Is my English OK? Is the microphone on? Because I’m beginning to wonder.

She’s right. Even among advocates of climate action there has been a deep and long-running unwillingness to be honest about what controlling climate change requires and the suffering that will arise if it isn’t done.

I think all the political leaders from this time (the carbon tax advocates and the clueless climate deniers) will be remembered as failures who had all the necessary information and technology but who still plunged humanity into the abyss because they were too controlled by the status quo to do otherwise.

Whether that abyss will just be a great amplification of the climate change effects we have already seen or something that challenges or destroys human civilization will depend on how quickly we can disempower the leaders holding us back and listen to people like Greta.

Alberta’s 2019 election

The election playing out in Alberta seems to have a lot in common with what has been happening with the federal Liberals, at least for those who see the urgency of decarbonizing to control climate change. There is a semi-progressive government that thinks that it has strong climate credentials because it has a long term plan. At the same time, neither the Alberta NDP nor the federal Liberals properly appreciate the scale and seriousness of climate change, which is why they are willing to keep backing new fossil fuel projects.

One Calgary Herald article today had an interesting comment:

Kenney says that if he takes office after next week’s vote, he’ll abolish the carbon tax and scrap the NDP’s 100 megatonne cap on oilsands emissions.

Federal sources note that the loss of the provincial carbon tax isn’t a big problem to them because Ottawa would simply impose its own tax.

But the emissions cap is a huge deal for the Trudeau Liberals.

They say removal of that cap could take Canada out of compliance with the Paris Agreement on climate change.

This is a reminder for the other perennial Liberal/NDP line on climate change: whatever the faults of our approach, the Conservatives will be worse. There is truth to that, and it provides the second prong of the dilemma for voters in Canada who think rapid decarbonization is urgent and essential.

Climate activists targeting a bank

Toronto350.org asked me to photograph their action outside the Toronto Dominion (TD) bank shareholder meeting downtown this morning, protesting continuing investment in fossil fuel projects.

The electrical system on my 5D3 flickered and died, despite fresh batteries. This is the first time I’ve ever really had to use the backup body, and my 5D2 rose appropriately to the occasion. I’ll take the 5D3 to a local camera service shop since I bought it used and it’s years outside of warranty.

Queen’s Park climate strike

I ducked out of my public policy workshop today to get some photos of the climate strike at Queen’s Park.

There are amazing photos and videos from other cities around the world, with turnouts of tens of hundreds of thousands in European cities. The rally in Montreal also seems to have been huge, for reasons I am very curious about. I would love to know what went into organizing it, and into bringing so many people out.

Alberta’s Energy Policy Simulator

The Pembina Institute has released a new interactive tool that lets anybody test out alternative approaches to setting energy policy for Alberta, in sectors including transport, buildings, electricity generation, and agriculture.

It doesn’t allow a huge amount of ambition. For instance, the only bitumen sands policy option is the 100 megatonne cap which the Alberta government has proposed, which you can tweak to be implemented more clearly. Still, it does a nice job of illustrating the relative impact of different approaches, from a faster phase-out of coal in electricity generation to various policies targeting vehicles, methane emissions, cement production, and sector-specific carbon taxes up to $350 per tonne.

Even with the most aggressive coal phase-out options, the bitumen sands cap, and $350 carbon taxes in all sectors, projected emissions only fall from a current level around 275 megatonnes of CO2-equivalent to around 100 megatonnes in 2045:

Even if every jurisdiction in the world achieved cuts at that rate, it wouldn’t be fast enough to produce a sub-2 ˚C warming scenario as called for in the Paris Agreement, and any politically plausible global pathway would see countries with very high per capita and historical emissions like Canada cut deeper and faster than the average.

I have previously posted about climate change games/simulations from the BBC and Chevron.

Middlebury fossil fuel divesment

At the end of January, Middlebury College (home institution of 350.org founder Bill McKibben) committed to fossil fuel divestment as part of a four-part response to climate change.

As far as I know, this is the first university which had formally said no to a divestment campaign and has since been brought around to saying yes.

Today Laurie Patton, the President of the college, published an editorial in Inside Higher Ed: Every Campus Should Address Climate Risk.