The environment – Page 117 – a sibilant intake of breath

Business-as-usual estimates from MIT

Researchers at MIT have updated their climatic models and reached conclusions generally in line with the Hadley Centre in the UK, in terms of the amount of warming that would occur by 2100 under a business-as-usual case, in which no significant emissions reductions are achieved:

[T]here is now a nine percent chance (about one in 11 odds) that the global average surface temperature would increase by more than 7°C (12.6°F) by the end of this century, compared with only a less than one percent chance (one in 100 odds) that warming would be limited to below 3°C (5.4°F).

It is difficult to express how enormous a change 7°C would be. Conservative estimates of the point at which anthropogenic climate change should be considered ‘dangerous’ tend to cluster around the 2°C target adopted by the European Union, and others. As the MIT model suggests, a world that does not mitigate emissions may face a 99% probability of experiencing average warming a full degree above that target.

When politicians talking about climate change say that they ‘accept the science,’ people should be asking them if these kinds of projections are part of the science they accept. If so, they ought to be asked why they are treating climate change with such an utter lack of seriousness, concentrating far more on matters of fleeting political concern. In retrospect, it seems that people three or four generations from now will judge our current leaders largely on the basis of their failure to respond effectively to this threat.

Tropical forest carbon sinks

A recent Nature article discusses the status of forest-based carbon sinks in general, with special emphasis on an African sink that is estimated to be absorbing 1.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide per year: nearly twice the level of Canada’s 2006 emissions.

Today’s launch of the Orbital Carbon Observatory should help scientists to gain a better sense of how carbon dioxide is moving through and between the atmosphere, hydrosphere, and biosphere.

All told, the article estimates that 18% of human carbon dioxide emissions are being absorbed by tropical forests. The article highlights the uncertainties involved in the future trajectory of absorption by this sink. It may be that additional atmospheric CO2 causes it to maintain or even increase its absorption in the medium term. Conversely, it may be that the trees will reach a maximum size and cease to absorb further carbon, or that temperature and precipitation changes caused by global warming will restrict growth.

In any event, humanity will be in a better position to plan for the future once we have a deeper understanding of the nature of existing carbon sinks, and better projections for how they will respond to future conditions. In the mean time, working to avert further tropical deforestation is an important precautionary step.

Public education about antibiotic resistance ‘footprints’

This report from the Canadian Press suggests that greenhouse gas emissions are, in the minds of some, becoming the common yardstick for all sorts of negative externalities. It argues that one mechanism for reducing the emergence of antibiotic resistance is to educate members of the public about how the misuse and overuse of the drugs helps the resistant genes to spread. It argues further that this idea can best be conveyed as an ‘antibiotic footprint’ – akin to one’s environmental or carbon footprint.

The suggestion is certainly indicative of the degree to which personal environmental indicators have gained prominence.

Climate change and Australia’s brushfires

Scientists frequently condemn journalists for being too quick to assert that particular events either support or call into question anthropogenic climate change. Indeed, reporting responsibly on the issue can be challenging. One the one hand, one cannot ignore the long-term contribution climate change makes to the frequency and severity of events; on the other, one doesn’t want to propagate the false idea that the accuracy or inaccuracy of climatic science hinges on a small number of extreme events of local weather trends.

A recent RealClimate post considers the case of Australia’s terrible recent brushfires. It considers a century worth of evidence on Australian brushfires, examining the importance of maximum temperatures, relative humidity, wind speed, and drought factors. Climate change trends are pushing in the direction of higher average temperatures and reduced rainfall. In the end, it comes to a measured by sobering conclusion:

While it is difficult to separate the influences of climate variability, climate change, and changes in fire management strategies on the observed increases in fire activity, it is clear that climate change is increasing the likelihood of environmental conditions associated with extreme fire danger in south-east Australia and a number of other parts of the world.

That may not be the kind of conclusion that translates easily into a headline for a popular newspaper, but it is the sort that we need to consider when making public policy on both climate change mitigation and adaptation.

The fourth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) concluded back in 2007 that:

An increase in fire danger in Australia is likely to be associated with a reduced interval between fires, increased fire intensity, a decrease in fire extinguishments and faster fire spread. In south-east Australia, the frequency of very high and extreme fire danger days is likely to rise 4-25% by 2020 and 15-70% by 2050.

Those fires will naturally contribute to positive feedbacks within the climate system, as heat-induced dryness prompts the fire-induced emission of greenhouse gasses previously bound up in forests and grasslands.

A responsible position on carbon capture

People reading this blog might get the mistaken impression that I am fiercely opposed to carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology. That is definitely untrue. There are few things that would be more helpful than safe, cheap, and effective CCS. It would ease the transition to a zero-carbon global economy, and it would allow for the actual removal of CO2 from the atmosphere, through the growing and burning of biomass.

All that said, it is deeply inappropriate for planners to count emissions reductions from anticipated future CCS in their plans, as the government of Alberta has done to an extreme extent. The technology is in its infancy. Indications to date suggest that it will not be as cheap as its biggest boosters hope. It may not be able to store carbon permanently or safely. Carbon capture certainly cannot do anything to mitigate emissions from mobile sources, making fossil fuel operations that generate fuels for them problematic.

On the basis of these concerns, I suggest that the following elements are important in any responsible consideration of CCS, from a public policy standpoint:

Emissions reductions from CCS should not be estimated until information on the costs and effectiveness of commercial operations are known.
It should not be assumed that CCS will allow high carbon activities such as burning coal or harvesting the oil sands to continue.
While some public funding for CCS may be justifiable (especially investigations into using it with biomass fuels), industry groups that are predicting heavy usage of the technology should bear most of the development and implementation costs.
CCS doesn’t make coal ‘clean.’ Even if it reduces CO2 emissions by 80-90%, coal will still be a climatically unsustainable technology. There are also a large number of environmental hazards associated with coal mining, coal ash, and so forth. Coal will probably never be clean, and will certainly never be clean just because it has CCS bolted on.
Likewise, CCS cannot redeem the oil sands.
We must develop alternative plans, in case CCS proves to be ineffective, unsafe, or unacceptably expensive.

As I have said before, we are in the Wright Brothers era of CCS technology, and it is far too soon to project whether it will be an important stabilization wedge or an expensive flop. It is definitely too early to be estimating the specific quantities of emissions that will be averted by as-yet-nonexistent technologies at unknown future dates.

If emissions are going to peak and descend to safe levels, we are going to need a lot of stabilization wedges: efficiency, protected and enhanced forests, zero-carbon electricity and fuels, and more. If we want to have a strategy that can survive the failure of a few major initiatives, that means we need extra wedges for contingency. As such, we probably can’t reject technologies like CCS and the increased use of nuclear fission out of hand.

Visualizing power usage

Of late, Google has certainly committed itself to some novel and ambitious energy projects. Their PowerMeter project probably scores fairly low on the scale of ambition, but it could nonetheless be very useful. The idea is to take in data from smart electrical meters on homes and process it into a form, accessible online, that is useful for the people who live in them. It looks like it will resemble the Google Analytics system for website statistics tracking, but it will be concerned with energy usage instead. Ideally, it will be able to isolate electricity usage associated with different activities and appliances, allowing consumers to better understand how they are using power and adjust their behaviour to do so more economically and sustainably.

Particularly when paired with differing electricity prices at different times (in order to smooth out variations between times of peak demand and times of minimal demand), such a system could encourage efficiency, help to balance the grid, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

I certainly hope it is eventually made compatible with the smart meters Ottawa Hydro has installing. I have contacted them to ask, but am still waiting for a response.

The oil sands, coal, and new regulations

The sheer determination of Canada’s current government to protect the oil sands by undermining Obama’s climate policy is considerable. Most recently, they have been arguing that oil sands extraction operations should be treated in the same way as American coal plants, and thus partially or fully protected from expensive new regulations.

For one thing, an ideal climate policy would drive the rapid replacement of existing coal plants with renewable sources of energy. For another, coal plants that were given free credits in some kind of ‘grandfathering’ system would be pre-existing facilities, built before climate concerns were as acute as they are now. A decent climate policy absolutely needs to prevent the construction of new coal power plants. If someone demonstrates safe, effective, and economical carbon capture and storage, that requirement may relax somewhat but, for the moment, we cannot assume that coal has a place in our next-generation energy mix.

Given the ambitious plans for expansion, the oil sands are much more like new coal plants than like old ones. As such, they should face the same tough rules as new facilities. Special exemptions may serve the short-term interests of some individuals and companies, but allowing the oil sands to develop along their present course is very much against the long-term interests of Canadians.

Troubled bike rental scheme in Paris

In a previous post, I mentioned the bicycle rental schemes that have already been deployed in some cities and which are being contemplated elsewhere. The theory is certainly an appealing one: making a fleet of bikes available for visitors and residents to rent at reasonable prices, encouraging sustainable transport, exercise, and an appealing urban character.

Unfortunately, the scheme in Paris has run into significant difficulties with theft and damage. Over half of the original fleet of bicycles has been stolen, and 1,500 a day require repairs due to abuse or vandalism. The company running the scheme has told the city that, since the theft and damage costs are so much higher than expected, the original financing agreement based around free advertising space is not adequate.

The outstanding question is how such abuses can be curbed without undermining the value of the whole scheme. For instance, credit card holders could be required to make a deposit equivalent to a bit more than the value of the bikes (about 400 Euros each), which would be refunded when the bicycles are returned. That would, however, exclude anybody who didn’t have access to that kind of credit. It also wouldn’t necessarily deal with the problem of vandalism. Strong public pressure to treat the bikes well might help protect them, but it is a difficult thing to encourage – especially since the kind of people likely to enjoy abusing bicycles are also the kind of people more mild-mannered citizens are unlikely to publicly challenge.

Stop-start cars

A recent Tech.view column described how stop-start engines could help increase automobile efficiency at a relatively low cost. The idea with such vehicles is that they “automatically switch off the engine when the car is slowing below 5 mph, and re-start it the instant the driver’s foot comes off the brake pedal.” Incorporating the technology into vehicles requires modifying their transmission, as well as beefing up their batteries and starter motors.

The column indicates that there are still issues to be overcome with the technology, but that it has the promise of producing significant improvements at far more modest cost than going to a hybrid vehicle. It seems like a demonstration of the fact that automakers do have low-cost options at their disposal for meeting new fuel efficiency standards. While this technology certainly isn’t transformational, it is the kind of low-cost temporary measure that can help us achieve a global peak in greenhouse gas emissions in the relatively near term, before beginning the difficult descent to carbon neutrality.

NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory

Later this month, NASA will be launching the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO): the first satellite designed to make precise measurements of carbon dioxide release and absorption around the world. This should provide important new information about how carbon dioxide is being emitted from human activities and degraded sources (such as decaying forests), as well as the operation of those natural sinks that continue to absorb atmospheric carbon dioxide.

The OCO will work using three parallel high-resolution spectrometers, being fed light by a common telescope. They will simultaneously measure concentrations of CO2 and molecular oxygen.

The new satellite will be placed at the front of a string of satellites in the same orbit: the Earth Observing System Afternoon Constellation, known more informally as the A-train. By having the satellites all look at the same areas in quick succession, the data from their various instruments can be assembled into a single high-quality, three-dimensional dataset. Five satellites are already in orbit, with two planned, including the OCO.

If all goes well, the OCO should be in orbit on February 24th.

[Update: 24 February 2009] It seems the launch has failed and the satellite has been destroyed. This is very disappointing: a blow to climate science, and to our chances of avoiding dangerous climate change. Hopefully, NASA will rebuild the satellite and try launching it again.

That would be a much better expenditure of resources than adding to the ISS or flying shuttles.