GMOs not providing yield or climate change benefits

White tree in archway

The Union of Concerned Scientists has a new report (PDF) out, arguing that genetic modification of crops has so far failed to increase yields or improve resilience to climate change. The study covers the period of the past fifteen years, during which GM crops have been widely commercially deployed in the United States and elsewhere. It focuses on corn and soybeans, since they are the most commonly-grown GM crops. 90% of American corn is GM, as are 64% of soybeans.

The report also highlights how GM crops are heavy users of nitrogen-rich synthetic fertilizers, and that their use generates nitrous oxide in soil, a powerful greenhouse gas. Producing fertilizer also requires energy and generally uses natural gas as a feedstock.

The report concludes that GM is being over-invested in, relative to conventional breeding techniques and approaches that minimize the use of external inputs. I have argued in the past that genetic modification could be one tool for helping to adapt to a changed climate, and I think that is still true. What this study shows is the importance of rigorous evaluation, as well as somewhat tempered enthusiasm when it comes to the ability of new technologies to yield strong, rapid changes in outcomes.

New Democrats disappointing on climate change

In the past, I have expressed my disappointment with the poor environmental positions adopted by the New Democratic Party (NDP) – most significantly, their oppositon to effective carbon pricing. In the lead-up to the election in British Columbia, I have been joined by a number of respected environmental groups, including The David Suzuki Foundation, the Pembina Institute and Forest Ethics.

Simon Fraser University economist Marc Jaccard has also criticized the NDP climate plan, arguing that it would be ineffective and would cost 60,000 jobs.

The White Man’s Burden

Emily reading Oedipus Rex

William Easterly’s The White Man’s Burden: Why the West’s Efforts to Aid the Rest Have Done So Much Ill and So Little Good seeks to refute utopian notions of what can be done with foreign aid and military interventions by citing evidence from past disasters. In his analysis, the planners who develop and implement foreign aid plans lack the capability, incentive, and ability to provide what is really needed by the poor. Rather than continuing to empower them in seeking grand solutions, mechanisms should be established through which ‘searchers’ can create meaningful initiatives to deal with specific, tractable issues. One paragraph sums up the basics of Easterly’s view of development:

Even when the West fails to “develop” the Rest, the Rest develops itself. The great bulk of development success in the Rest comes from self-reliant, exploratory efforts, and the borrowing of ideas, institutions, and technology from the West when it suits the Rest to do so.

He argues that Western states should abandon their pretences and most of the approaches they have deployed so far. Because of the fundamental linkages of accountability they create, Easterly holds that markets, rather than bureaucracies, are the ideal mechanism for serving human needs. He does not, however, have an excessive faith in the ability of effective markets to emerge: stressing that they can do so only when social, legal, and political conditions are appropriate. Given that the complexities of these things aren’t even understood in relation to long-standing markets in developed states, he argues that it is unrealistic to try to develop and deploy market creation plans in poor states.

One somewhat curious aspect of the book is a focus on countries which is sometimes too rigid, with less consideration of the economic breakdown within them. Almost always, the most authoritative measure of a country’s success is taken to be the level of GDP and the rate of GDP growth. Comparatively little consideration is given to the distribution of wealth or income. Claims made about different forms of poverty reduction could have been more comprehensively examined through a combination of aggregate data and considerations of distributions.

Easterly acknowledges that health is an area where aid has done unusually well – partly because health problems lend themselves to the kind of high-accountability, distributed solutions he favours. Efforts to eradicate certain diseases with vaccines and medication demonstrate that big, expensive efforts are sometimes justified. Recognizing that, the book is highly critical of health efforts that fail to take into account local conditions. It is also very critical of spending money on AIDS treatment. Easterly argues that such treatment costs about $1,500 a year, in total, with only a few hundred of those dollars for the generic first-line drugs themselves. Since both preventing the transmission of AIDS and treating other diseases can extend the total number of years of human life much more efficiently, he argues that funding AIDS treatment is a gross misallocation of resources. He also argues that it is important to counteract entities that are doing enormous amounts of harm: such as the Christian organizations that push governments and NGOs to back away from condoms, or those that promote useless abstinence education programs. Other education programs can be enormously more effective: such as teaching prostitutes about AIDS and how to prevent it with barriers.

The book completely ignores environmental issues, which I see as a major problem. Climate change is a huge threat to development, and carries many risks of poverty and conflict. Easterly rightly criticizes planners everywhere from failing to anticipate the eventual consequences of the AIDS epidemic, and taking preventative action beforehand. Inadequate global action on climate change threatens to produce a much worse problem. When the book praises Beijing for having eight beltways around its core, it highlights the difference I have seen in other places between pro-growth development economists and others who are more concerned about the environmental consequences of such unbridled activity. While environmentalists are often insufficiently concerned with poverty reduction (sometimes monstrously suggesting that keeping most people in poverty is a good way to lighten the environmental burden), economists are often guilty of ignoring the real impacts and enormous threats associated with being unconcerned with sustainability.

Easterly’s suggests that organizations that provide or distribute aid need to be much more focused on particular, comprehensible tasks and that mechanisms must be in place to evaluate their effectiveness at serving the interests of the people who are the targets of the aid. They should concentrate on providing basic needs in a direct way: things like medicine, seeds, roads, textbooks, and medical staff. Results should be evaluated using scientific approaches (both randomized trials and statistical analyses) conducted by truly independent organizations. The concept of ‘development vouchers’ which could be given to poor people and then used in exchange for development services, from an organization selected by the recipients, is an example of the same general kind of thinking.

The book’s style deserves some criticism. It is written in the form of dozens of little sections, each a few pages long. It can also be rather repetitive. Sometimes, Easterly’s points of rebuttal are glib or unconvincing, delivered in an offhand way without a great deal of logical or empirical justification. That being said, his overall conclusions are well supported by a great deal of statistical, historical, and anecdotal evidence.

In the end, the book is one that ought to be read by all those with a serious interest in international development, and the relations between the developed and developing world. While it is not universally convincing, it is a useful contribution to the overall dialogue and a sensible rebuttal to the excessive idealism (even utopianism) or some plans and political positions. The book is also interesting insofar as it considers what elements produce stable and prosperous societies, and which characteristics lead to misery and stagnation. Those are lessons that can be sensibly applied even within the states which already consider themselves to be fully developed.

Easterly and climate change

Mossy branches

I am continuing to work my way through Easterly’s book, as selected for the blog book club. What I have been finding most interesting about it is actually its description of the complex nature of power and economic structures within society, more than its specific criticisms about how Western aid has been packaged, delivered, and understood. Essentially, the book is a classically conservative critique of the Enlightenment notion that a centralized body with sufficient information and intelligence can transform society for the better. It stresses the intricacy of society’s interconnections, while also highlighting the dangers associated with trying to undertake radical change.

Actually, it is somewhat uncomfortable reading, when you start thinking about how the information applies to climate change. While there is a degree to which top-down climate change policies work by spurring innovation, the real challenge of dealing with climate change is that it requires people to do things that contradict their past experience, and sometimes their near-term self interest. Acting quickly enough to stop climate change requires some degree of the kind of Utopian project-building that Easterly derides, though it is likely that an awareness of some of the pitfalls he considers might help avoid future problems. For instance, it might make more sense to create climate policies that don’t discriminate between technologies or economic sectors – rather than guessing where success will come from and investing directly there.

Two views on carbon pricing

Brick arch and river

The basic idea of carbon pricing is to force people to take into account more of the consequences of their own actions. This is essentially a response to market failures; while there is an incentive to overfish from a commonly-accessible lake, it doesn’t make sense to overfish your own pond. That being said, there do seem to be two possible philosophies for setting the price. One approach is to approximate the total level of harm your actions cause, then set the price at that level. But turning the suffering of others into your suffering, you are given the incentive to minimize the harm, and avoid actions that have more harmful than beneficial consequences. In the context of climate change, however, the overriding task is not simply to emit less, but rather to build a society where people live carbon-neutral lives. Arguably, then, the level of the carbon price should be set so as to make that transition maximally easy, while making sure it happens fast enough to avoid abrupt or catastrophic change.

In the end, this distinction is largely academic, given the uncertainties involved. (There is also the matter of choosing a discount rate, which has enormous effects on your estimate of the net present value of harms that occur in the future.) Since the transition to a carbon neutral society will be a one-off change, we will probably never have the information required to know for certain whether it could have been done more quickly or efficiently. Once the risks associated with inaction are taken into account, it seems clear that we need to establish a carbon price that spurs rapid action and a sustained commitment to economic transformation.

Diatoms as solar cell material

Scientists in Oregon are working on a process to make solar panels with the help of single-celled marine organisms called diatoms. By providing the diatoms with titanium dioxide, rather than the silicon dioxide with which they normally make their shells, a material is produced that can be rendered photovoltaic through the application of dyes. Supposedly, this material is three times more efficient than similar dye-based thin-film cells made without the diatoms. While the resulting cells are still experimental, and more expensive than conventional thin-film dye cells, the possible efficiency gains may eventually render them more commercially viable and effective, especially in situations of relative low light.

Certainly, microorganisms are a sensible place to look if you want to be able to consistently produce precise nanoscale structures. Hopefully, techniques like this will speed the pace at which renewably generated power displaces that from fossil fuels.

Dubious ‘Clean Energy Dialogue’ appointment

Squirrel in hail

If Canada’s government was serious about having a Clean Energy Dialogue with the United States, it probably would not have appointed a former oil sands executive to head one of the three working groups. According to DeSmogBlog, the appointee – Charlie Fischer – has 500,000 shares in Nexen, a firm that owns 7% of Syncrude, a major player in the Athabasca oil sands. That is about as clear a conflict of interest as a participant in a ‘Clean Energy Dialogue’ could have.

The logic of subjecting the oil sands to the same carbon price as the rest of the economy is very strong. Firstly, it means that low-cost emissions reduction opportunities in the sector will be realized. Secondly, with an appropriately set carbon price, it will help discourage economic activities that have negative value, once the effects of climate change are taken into account.

The logic gets even stronger when you consider a future integrated North American carbon market: the bigger the market, the more opportunity there is for a single clear price signal to induce the lowest-possible cost emissions reductions throughout the economy.

Big potential for offshore wind

A new report from the US Interior Department concludes that offshore wind power could be more than sufficient for meeting the current level of American demand for electricity. They estimate that the Atlantic coast alone could provide 1,000 gigawatts of electricity: as much as 1,000 Westinghouse AP1000 nuclear reactors. The report also estimates that wind power in shallow waters (less than 30m deep) could provide 20% of the electricity required by coastal states.

While the report also stresses the oil and gas resources that could be taken advantage of in these continental waters, it is encouraging to see that it takes renewables seriously. The report’s executive summary is online.

Lost Antarctic ice bridge

Circular clothing rack

The BBC is reporting that a stretch of ice between the Charcot and Latady islands has collapsed. Further, the bridge was apparently an important structure holding the remaining portion of the Wilkins Ice Shelf in place. The shelf, which is the size of Jamaica, has been suffering major recorded losses since 2008, and its total disappearance would represent the largest loss of ice in the Antarctic region in recorded history.

Three satellites are monitoring the shelf either daily or more often: the European Space Agency’s Envisat, and NASA’s Terra and Aqua satellites. Uncertainty about the ice dynamics of western Antarctica is a major source of uncertainty in projections of future sea level rise associated with climate change.

Adapting to +4˚C

High-key shamrock leaves

New Scientist has an interesting piece on what might be involved in adapting to a 4˚C increase in mean global temperature – a level twice that considered by most to be the threshold of danger. Some of the more dramatic projections include: “Alligators basking off the English coast; a vast Brazilian desert; the mythical lost cities of Saigon, New Orleans, Venice and Mumbai; and 90 per cent of humanity vanished.” The piece rightly stresses that the adaptation challenge depends on both the speed of change and the degree, and that some levels of climate change are not compatible with maintaining populations or civilizations comparable to those that exist today. It focuses intensely on water availability as a key determinant for the habitability of large parts of the globe.

While the details of this assessment are far more speculative than the science that shows a 4˚C rise to be possible, given continued fossil fuel use, it does seem worthwhile to be seriously contemplating what different future scenarios might involve. On the one hand, doing so might help us prepare. On the other, it should help us more viscerally comprehend the consequences of inaction.