Moving past danger

Riding the bus past the Darlington nuclear station, between Ottawa and Toronto, I noticed a very irrational emotional reaction. Moving closer to the building, I felt a small but rising amount of anxiety, thinking about all the dangerous materials contained inside. Immediately after the bus passed the reactor, leaving it out of sight, I felt relieved.

Of course, it is completely irrational to feel relieved immediately after passing something dangerous. After all, you are still right beside it. You should feel equally nervous at equal distances.

Still, it is possible to see how the emotions involved produce the irrational reaction. Moving toward an object of danger naturally creates a certain degree of anxiety: whether it is a dangerous animal, an opposing army, or an array of hot uranium rods. The feeling of anxiety encourages people to behave cautiously and consider their actions. By contrast, moving away from a dangerous thing is naturally comforting, and arguably something that can be done with less caution.

Certainly, it is possible to imagine why a gene for feeling relieved when moving away from dangerous objects would confer a selective advantage upon the individuals who possess it. It would probably make them less likely to die in a number of different ways.

Fostering cooperation

Coordination of technical standards is probably the most routine sort of international relations. Everyone can agree that it is useful when phone calls and letters can successfully operate across international borders, and that it is useful when roads, rail lines, electrical connections, and other linkages are available and standardized.

The practicality of these tasks aside, it does seem probable that they would help to foster good relations between countries. When engineers from Country X see that engineers from Country Y are a lot like them, it is plausible that they generalize that feeling into a certain sense of general commonality.

It would be interesting to see some data and analysis on the role technical cooperation has played in fostering good relations. Routine work like communication interlinkages could be one topic of study. The same could be true for more exotic undertakings, like joint space missions.

As discussed before, it is also possible that the existing level of cooperation between states could break down if the world became sufficiently unstable.

Planet Money on drug legalization and ‘Freeway Rick’

In a recent episode of NPR’s Planet Money podcast, they interviewed a former L.A. drug dealer about the economics of his profession. He was apparently a high-ranking member of the illegal drug industry, operating with 30-40 employees and sometimes handling daily revenues of $3 million per day.

He largely confirms the new conventional wisdom: that prohibition massively increases the price of drugs (1000 fold, he says) and substantially increases how much crime and violence is associated. As the episode concludes in saying, the question is whether the supposed benefit of fewer people using drugs justifies all the costs and harms associated with prohibition.

Imagine anybody could buy one shot of heroin at the LCBO (Ontario’s liquor store) for $5. Suddenly, there would be no illegal market. Nobody would buy heroin of unknown purity from an illegal dealer if it was available for a low price from a government-sponsored source. People would not have to commit major crimes to buy drugs, and they would get drugs of assured priority and consistent potency. More people might use heroin, but it would be less dangerous and harmful for society as a whole.

The episode also argues that it is the hopelessness within their communities that drives people to become drug addicts and to join the illegal drug industry. The lack of better employment options makes the special costs in terms of jail or violence less of a deterrent than they would be for people with better options.

The episode is called: “#266: A Former Crack Dealer On the Economics of Dealing”. It is available for free through the iTunes Store.

Open thread: explicitly ethnic states

It can be argued that it is fundamentally inappropriate for any state to try to have a single ethnic or religious character. It can be argued that all states should be secular and pluralist when it comes to race (however you choose to define it) or religion.

At the same time, it seems possible that a state could try to have an ethnic character without being unjust as a result. If two groups live in a region – the As and Bs – is it always better for them to both live in the secular state of Plural-Land – or might it be better to have an A-land and a B-land? Can this question be answered from first principles, or only with reference to particular historical examples?

What really matters may be the effect of the system of government on people both inside and outside the state. Thoughts?

Locksport

Locksport is the practice of studying and learning to defeat locking systems, primarily mechanical locks such as pin and tumbler locks. As I understand it, it is driven by curiosity and the desire to understand how things work, rather than any desire to circumvent real-world locks. Practitioners are people who puzzle their way to inside information about an industry that tends to be close-knit and secretive, not unlike the people who watch classified satellite launches in the U.S. and track the orbits of mysterious secret satellites.

The Dutch blog blackbag is a good source of information on locksport, including picking, bump keys, and impressioning. The Open Organization Of Lockpickers is a group for locksport affectionados. Theoretically, they have a chapter in Ottawa, but it doesn’t seem to be active.

I think it’s worth trying one’s hand at picking locks, if only to get a sense of how secure they really are. I found that with a few minutes of work and no professional instruction, I could open the locks and deadbolts in my old apartment using a tension wrench and simple pick. The same goes for padlocks – both the omnipresent cheap Master Lock variety and higher security versions with security pins.

The legality of tools for manipulating locks varies by jurisdiction. In the United States, it varies from state to state. In Canada, lock picking tools (except for key duplication tools) are legal and treated just like any other tool.

Two questions for data management

1) How bad would it be to lose it?

If the answer is ‘bad’ then you absolutely must have at least two copies.

If the answer is ‘terrible’ then at least three copies is wise. At least one should be in a safe place off site. Incremental backups are better than basic ones, since files do get corrupted and vanish.

Ideally, you want both up to date incremental backups and complete snapshots taken at regular intervals and checked periodically for integrity.

2) How bad would it be if it ended up all over the internet?

If this would be a problem at all, there is a whole universe of precautions to consider:

Hardware: firewalls, built in encryption, air gapped systems and storage, networking hardware (including WiFi), etc

Software: cryptography, operating systems, malware risks (including pirated software), intrusion detection systems, etc

Behaviour: physical access control, data retention and destruction, passwords and secret questions, backup processes

Digital data is the sort of thing where not only can the cat get out of the bag, but it can get out, get copied a billion times, and become your name’s top Google hit for the rest of your life.

F-35s and UAVs

A recent letter in The Ottawa Citizen makes an interesting point:

Our CF-18s don’t need to be replaced. Lockheed-Martin needs to sell F-35s right now. The window is closing because UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) technology is advancing by leaps and bounds. The F-35 is like the last word in cavalry horses in 1914. By the time we actually need CF-18 replacements, that fleet won’t have cockpits.

Is there a role for which piloted combat aircraft will always be best? Perhaps air show demonstrations. Apart from that, the wide range of UAV sensors will always trump eyeballs in the cockpit. The executive decisions of a team of controllers on the ground will always trump the snap judgments of the over-tasked pilot in the air. And finally, the performance of an aircraft that isn’t bound by human limits will always be able to trump the Top Gun solution. The only ingredient missing from UAVs is testosterone.

Perhaps this is the wrong time to be buying manned fighter aircraft, even from a purely military perspective (ignoring the question of whether the money could be better spent on non-military purposes).

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy

John Le Carré’s Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy is a classic spy novel, written for those who enjoy the suggestion of authenticity. Rather than indulging in the over-the-top pyrotechnics found in some spy thrillers, Le Carré’s characters are cautious and meticulous. In particular, the protagonist George Smiley is a kind of antithesis to the James Bond stereotype: fat, clad in fogged spectacles, burdened with an unfaithful wife, but nonetheless at the top of the game when it comes to counterintelligence operations in the United Kingdom.

The setting – Britain during the Cold War – permeates the book. I will admit that it is a bit amusing to read about the high drama of spies speeding along obscure motorways connecting small British cities, rather than jetting around between glamorous national capitals. At the same time, Le Carré does capture what I would expect to be the key geopolitical dynamics of the time: the superpower competition between Russia and America, with the United Kingdom in the middle in a diminished post-imperial role. Le Carré talks about how British agents were: “Trained to Empire, trained to rule the waves. All gone. All taken away.” It makes you wonder who will be elevated and who will be lowered, forty years from now.

Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy includes some observations that border on the philosophical. Le Carré raises the question of oversight, and the difficulty of trusting spies (p. 74 paperback) ; he explains how the wily opponent seeks not perfection, but advantage from his actions (194) ; the ways in which the false identities a person maintains actually express the person they conceal (213); how intelligence services have an incentive to puff up the competence of their opponents, to get more support for themselves (316); how “survival” is “an infinite capacity for suspicion” (337); how the essence of betrayal is to “overtly pursue… one aim and secretly achieve its opposite” (354); how a state’s secret services provide a measure of its political health (365); and how treason becomes “a matter of habit” once initial motivations become fuzzy and continuing on the same course seems the simplest option (377). The comment about enemy capabilities is especially relevant today, as gigantic state security bureaucracies justify themselves on the basis of the threat from a few dangerous malcontents hanging around in caves and radical discussion forums online.

Le Carré’s writing is full of examples of clever observation, which both appeals to the reader’s curiosity and makes the characters themselves seem more interesting and authentic. The book is also peppered with authentic-seeming espionage tradecraft, in areas like following people, transmitting information securely, sending coded signals, and handling in-person meetings. Probably technology has changed some of that since 1974, but perhaps not all that much. The paranoid world of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy, in which it is unclear which of the authorities can be trusted, has many parallels with the world today.

Evil and non-evil Facebook buttons

Many websites now include Facebook buttons and widgets of various sorts. As a user, it is worth knowing that if you are logged into Facebook, many of those buttons and widgets can be used by Facebook to track your web use and  link it to your real identity. 

This site has a Facebook button, as well, but it is a graphic that loads from my own server. It does not allow Facebook to add to their trove of data.

That said, Google has its own massive data pile, which this site contributes to in obvious ways like content being indexed and less obvious ways like Google Analytics visitor tracking.

The Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao

Ordinarily, the multi-generational family story is my least favourite kind of novel. I usually find them tedious and uncompelling. It speaks especially well of Junot Diaz’s book, then, that I found it engagingly written and worthwhile, though a rather darker read than I was expecting.

Diaz succeeds in giving distinct voices to his multiple narrators, though it wouldn’t have hurt to identify them at the beginning of each section. The book is also full of poignant and clever descriptions, though they may be a bit crass for some tastes. Diaz’s writing includes many untranslated Spanish passages, some of which at least provide hints of meaning to speakers of English and French, while some of which are simply incomprehensible without assistance. It also includes numerous references to science fiction and fantasy books, which are a passion of the novel’s titular figure.

Perhaps the most compelling aspect of the book is the way in which it effectively expresses the experience of living in a dictatorship that is also a police state: the arbitrary arrests, the inconsistent application of justice, the torture, the rapes, the fear, the spying between neighbours, the absurdity, and the inevitable abuse of power by the secret police. Diaz is very effective at conveying an impression (I cannot judge how accurate) of what the Dominican Republic was like under Rafael Trujillo, the man who looms over the book but whose assassination is relegated to a long footnote.

Reading The Brief Wondrous Life of Oscar Wao could serve as a bit of a vaccine for those who are frustrated by the imperfections of democracy and who wonder whether a benevolent despot might do better. With visceral language that makes for anxious reading, Diaz expresses the injustices that arise when power exists without oversight.