Gay marriage in Vermont

Brick building in Ottawa

It is encouraging to see that Vermont’s legislature has legalized gay marriage, overturning the veto of the Republican governor. That said, while this is good news for same-sex couples in the state, I do think it’s a bit awkward that the change happened due to legislation rather than litigation. As I see it, forbidding same-sex marriage is straightforward discrimination. As such, eliminating the discrimination is something that governments with constitutions that enshrine equality are both legally and morally bound to do. By doing so through legislation instead, they distort that position and suggest that same-sex marriage is a voluntary legal situation, rather than a natural consequence of interpreting the law on all marriage in a non-discriminatory way.

While ‘activist judges’ are a hot-button political issue, I do think it’s important to identify and recognize when decisions emerge inevitably from our existing laws and values, rather than pretending that they require some secondary approval in order to be valid.

On a tactical level, the consequences of this approach are less clear. On the one hand, it might serve as a mechanism to counter accusations that gay marriages are anti-democratic or the work of the aforementioned ‘activist’ judges. On the other hand, it may isolate the specific matter of gay marriage from the broader issue of equality under the law. Whereas a finding that any state permitting heterosexual marriage must permit homosexual marriage can be naturally extended to matters like health care and pension law, the narrower scope of enabling legislation seems like a less useful precedent.

Canada, Charles, and the monarchy

Andrea Simms-Karp in her kitchen

The Globe and Mail is considering an issue I raised some time ago: whether the royal transition from Elizabeth II to Charles might be a good opportunity for Canada to abandon the monarchy entirely. Personally, I think it would be an ideal time to get rid of a dated institution that insults the concept of democracy and the rule of law. It is absurd that the highest office in Canada is occupied by a foreigner by virtue of the family they were born into. It is contrary to the values which our society is built upon and it is fundamentally anachronistic.

The absurd present arrangement might be eliminated in several different ways, two of which I will briefly consider. I dub them ‘republic light’ and ‘substantial republic.’

In the first case, we nix the royals and replace the Governor General with an appointed ceremonial president, with few substantial powers. They could retain things like the formal right to dissolve Parliament, but would be given much clearer rules on when and how to do so. The new presidency would be much like the current Governor Generalship, insofar as it would put someone who seems to embody Canadian values in a position to hobnob with foreign diplomats who would otherwise be a drain on the prime minister’s time.

In the second case, abandoning the monarchy could be a catalyst for a much deeper democratic reform. We could replace the Governor General with a directly elected president, formally splitting the executive and legislative branches of government. The prime minister would still make laws, but they could be subjected to a kind of limited veto system akin to what exists in the United States. The president would also be the head of the armed forces and the front-person for global diplomacy. While it’s hard to imagine a prime minister endorsing such a harsh curtailing of their own responsibilities, I think it would be very valuable for Canadian voters to have the chance to express their leadership preferences directly. The way in which the leaders of Canadian political parties are chosen leaves a great deal to be desired.

Both as a person and as a symbol, Prince Charles is far from impressive. I maintain that Elizabeth II is an eminently suitable final monarch, and suggest that Canada should be contemplating how the royal institution could end with her. The constitutional difficulties involved in making the change are considerable – enormously more so for ‘substantial republic’ than for the light version – but it is certainly a thing worth contemplating.

Are Canadian banks too big?

Mixed media on a Toronto wall

So far, Canada’s banks seem to have fared will in the financial crisis. Unlike in the United States, they are few and relatively forcefully regulated. The current Wikipedia article on Canada’s banks is generous with praise: “Banking in Canada is widely considered the most efficient and safest banking system in the world, ranking as the world’s soundest banking system according to a 2008 World Economic Forum report.” It’s possible that this is a fundamentally superior form of financial regulation. At the same time, it’s possible that this crisis just wasn’t the sort that would test the viability of the big Canadian banks, and that another crisis could.

Given the extreme difficulty of dealing with banks too big to fail, should Canada break up the big banks that exist presently? Would doing so increase the security of the financial system, or diminish it? Also, if Canadian banks should be broken up, when should it be done?

Adapting to +4˚C

High-key shamrock leaves

New Scientist has an interesting piece on what might be involved in adapting to a 4˚C increase in mean global temperature – a level twice that considered by most to be the threshold of danger. Some of the more dramatic projections include: “Alligators basking off the English coast; a vast Brazilian desert; the mythical lost cities of Saigon, New Orleans, Venice and Mumbai; and 90 per cent of humanity vanished.” The piece rightly stresses that the adaptation challenge depends on both the speed of change and the degree, and that some levels of climate change are not compatible with maintaining populations or civilizations comparable to those that exist today. It focuses intensely on water availability as a key determinant for the habitability of large parts of the globe.

While the details of this assessment are far more speculative than the science that shows a 4˚C rise to be possible, given continued fossil fuel use, it does seem worthwhile to be seriously contemplating what different future scenarios might involve. On the one hand, doing so might help us prepare. On the other, it should help us more viscerally comprehend the consequences of inaction.

Dark Sun

Government offices in Gatineau

The whole technical and chilling history of atomic weapons is reviewed in Richard Rhodes’ Dark Sun: The Making of the Hydrogen Bomb. Released in 1995, it is based substantially on documents that became available after the end of the Cold War, documenting the development of nuclear and thermonuclear bombs in the United States and Soviet Union, as well as delving into issues of international politics, espionage, and delivery systems.

Most people are likely to find some aspects of the book tedious, while others are fascinating. For instance, I noted all the descriptions of design details of nuclear and thermonuclear issues with interest, but found a lot of the minute descriptions of espionage activities tedious (especially descriptions of nearly every meeting between the atomic spies and their contacts). That said, the book will certainly offer good rewards to anyone with an interest in some aspect of nuclear weapons or the Cold War.

The last few pages really ought to be read by everyone. They document the shocking behaviour of Curtis LeMay and the Strategic Air Command (SAC) in the period prior to the Cuban Missile Crisis, as well as during it. At the time, LeMay and some of his commanders could use nuclear weapons without presidential authority; they were also obsessed with striking first, and generally convinced that war with Russia was inevitable. Perhaps the most shocking actions detailed are LeMay’s strategy of flying nuclear-capable bombers over targets like Vladivostok, in the Soviet Union. They were running drills and taking photos, but it looked to the Russians exactly like an atomic attack. I don’t think Rhodes is wrong to suggest that, had the Soviets done something similar in America, the SAC would have launched an all-out attack against them. Rhodes marshals compelling evidence that LeMay did, at times, seek to provoke a nuclear war through initiatives like these flights and the provocative American ballistic missile test undertaken during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

The book’s closing also laments the enormous amounts of sacrifice made to build up these massive, threatening stocks of weapons. The Oak Ridge and Hanford complexes, producing fissile materials, used more energy than the Tennessee Valley Authority, Hoover, Grand Coulee, and Bonneville dams could produce together. One year of expanding the facilities required 11% of US nickel production and 34% of the output of stainless steel. All told, Rhodes estimates that the arms race cost America over $4 trillion, which could have otherwise been put to productive uses. On the Soviet side, the story is far more appalling: with thousands of slaves being terrorized and irradiated in the drive to match the American weapons complex. The irony is that, while generals and arms manufacturers clamoured for ever-more warheads, politicians on both sides of the Iron Curtain had already come to understand that the weapons could never be used. Indeed, Rhodes’ account provides a nice counter-argument to the view that all politicians are short-sighted and lacking in wisdom.

All told, Rhodes’ account is an excellent one: historically rigorous, but alive to the human issues raised inevitably by the subject matter. It’s a book that is deeply relevant in a world where US-Russian tensions are growing, weapons are proliferating, and a terrifying number of bombs are still deployed on 15-minute hair-trigger alerts.

The geological plausibility of CCS

Andrea Simms-Karp and a stone wall

Two articles on the April 2nd issue of Nature look into some of the physics, chemistry, and geology associated with carbon capture and storage (CCS) as a possible form of greenhouse gas mitigation. The first largely summarizes the results of the second. Each stresses how significant amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2) are already trapped in groundwater in the subsurface environment, suggesting that the artificial addition of more may be safe and effective. Leaks are avoided due to the “presence of sealing, low-permeability rock formations above the targeted layer,” such as those found above natural gas fields. The article considers CO2-rich natural gas fields in North America, China and Europe as natural analogs for future CCS sites. It concludes that relatively little (about 10%) of the CO2 gets incorporated into rocks, from which it is unlikely to escape. Most remains in water, from which future emissions are more possible. It concludes that the hydrogeological characteristics of future CCS sites will need to be carefully considered, bearing in mind that most of the CO2 will apparently end up saturated in water.

None of this provides definitive support for CCS as a mitigation option. Rather, it provides some guidance into the further research necessary to determine if it can be safe and environmentally effective. Notably, this research also gives no consideration to the economics of CCS deployment, nor to the timelines across which it can be achieved. Indeed, these articles could be taken as evidence of the relative infancy of the scientific consideration of subsurface disposal of carbon dioxide, something that governments assuming its near-term commercial viability should note.

Waxman-Markey climate change bill

Democrats in the American House of Represenatives released a 648-page climate change and energy bill today. The bill is centred around a cap-and-trade system that is intended to reduce American greenhouse gas emissions to 20% below 2005 levels by 2020, and to 83% below 2005 levels by 2050. Other provisions include “a nationwide renewable electricity standard that reaches 25 percent by 2025, new energy efficiency programs and limits on the carbon content of motor fuels, and requires greenhouse gas standards for new heavy duty vehicles and engines.” Overall, the targets are a bit tougher than the ones in the Obama platform were, though this is much more of an opening offer than a final draft. One huge issue which the bill does not yet specify is whether emissions credits will be auctioned or simply given away. Obama’s platform included a very clear call for 100% auctioning, which would be ideal from an environmental perspective.

It will be a long road from introduction through negotiation in both houses towards eventual ratification, and this bill may not make it. Even getting the bill out of the committee Waxman chairs may be a challenge. That being said, it is urgently necessary for a price on carbon to be established and for reductions to begin. Hopefully, legislators will be far-thinking enough to speed that process along, while also establishing a regulatory framework that can be built upon during the coming years and decades.

Rethinking abstinence

City skyline graffiti

Given the character of the modern world, it seems sensible to re-evaluate some of our assumptions. For instance, the importance of sexual abstinence. Arguably, it derives from three considerations: the danger of pregnancy, the risk of disease, and the social concept of sin. In modern society, good tools are available for dealing with all of these. Among them, hormonal birth control systems, condoms, and atheism. Arguably, much of the case for sexual abstinence has vanished.

Contrast that with the (barely existent) public case for reproductive abstinence. Given that society is grossly unsustainable, we don’t even have evidence that the number of people currently alive can continue to live at the level of material welfare they do. Despite this, most governments push fertility. There is parental leave, there are often tax breaks for marriage and having children, and house ownership is encouraged through public subsidy.

Perhaps the world would be a better place if governments became significantly more lax in their efforts to discourage sexual abstinence, while simultaneously shifting towards encouraging reproductive abstinence. Given the degree to which our gross over-use of the natural resources and adaptive capacities of the planet is threatening the future of the human species, it seems quite rational, in the end. Obviously, governments with some respect for personal liberty cannot actually curtail reproduction. Of course, they couldn’t curtail sex either. The idea is to shift from efforts in the latter area to efforts in the former one. That need not involve anything too restrictive: just making sure that those who don’t want children have the tools required to avoid it, while reducing the degree to which society at large helps finance the reproduction of those who choose to undertake it.

April climate summit in Washington

Apparently, President Obama has announced a summit of world leaders to discuss climate change, to occur in April as partial preparation for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) meeting in December. The summit will include Canada, the US, China, India, and twelve others.

Quite possibly, it will offer a useful glimpse into the national positions being adopted for Copenhagen, and the possibility of a strong agreement emerging there. Arguably, the most important issue is the degree of bilateral cooperation likely to emerge between the US and China. If they can agree to something that is acceptable for the European Union and Japan, everybody else might fall into line.

Oil sands, game theory, and jobs

Clothes for sale, Toronto

If we are going to prevent catastrophic climate change, every major country in the world will need to have policies that put a price on carbon and encourage the transition to a low-carbon economy. If the range of estimates for safe concentrations is approximately right (350 – 550ppm, very broadly), such policies will need to be in place within a period of years to, at most, decades. In such a world, projects like Canada’s oil sands would be enough to make the state permitting them an international pariah. It seems quite legitimate to expect harsh trade sanctions against a state that is so blatantly ignoring the need for the world to cut emissions, once many other states have seriously begun to do so. Given that I don’t think Canada has the stomach to be another North Korea, it seems like we would eventually give in to pressure to bring our policies in line with those of the United States and our other allies and trading partners.

As such, there are two possible long-term outcomes that can be envisioned. Either catastrophic climate change will occur or Canada will be forced to cut emissions like everybody else. In the former case, I suppose our current climate policies are not hugely relevant. If the rest of the world doesn’t get its act together, human civilization will probably snuff itself out. In the latter case, further investment in the oil sands will just increase the medium-term economic losses associated with the abandonment of the project. Such investment will also make it more and more politically difficult for the government of Alberta to support sane climate policies, turning it into more and more of an active ‘spoiler’ in domestic climate change negotiations between different levels of government.

Unfortunately, the ‘bite’ in this analysis doesn’t come into effect for some time, probably beyond the political horizons of most Canadian policy-makers today. As a further consequence, it is very hard to get people to take such long-term considerations into account. That being said, if a large majority of Canadians came to understand the issue in these terms – that we are pouring effort into a project that will ultimately need to be abandoned – the political landscape might shift considerably. The discussion may then be less about jobs now versus climatic stability in the future, and more about directing the ongoing development of the economy towards jobs that will still be viable in ten years, instead of ones that will be extinguished along any effective path to a sustainable future.