Of group sizes and word counts

Lincoln College, Oxford

According to Malcolm Gladwell, something fundamental happens to human organizations once they grow beyond 150 people. This is called Dunbar’s Number. If you take the size of a primate’s neocortex, relative to the rest of its brain, you will find a close correlation to the expected maximum group size for that species.1 This number corresponds to village sizes, as seen around the world, to the sizes of effective military units, and to the size at which Hutterite communities split up. It seems that, above this size, organizations require complex hierarchies, rules, regulations, and formal measures to operate efficiently.

I think that something very similar happens to pieces of academic writing, once they get beyond about 5,000 words. That is the point where my ability to hold the entire thing at once in my mind fails, often leading to duplication and confusion. Even with two levels of sub-divisions, things simply become unmanageable at that point and I go from feeling total control over a piece of writing (2,500 words) to feeling that it has sprawled a bit (3-4,000 words) to feeling rather daunted by the whole thing. With my revised second chapter at 5,700 words and three to seven hours left prior to submission, I am certainly feeling as though things have grown beyond the bounds of good sense and comprehensibility.

[1] Gladwell, Malcolm. The Tipping Point: How Little Things Can Make a Big Difference. Back Bay Books; New York, 2000. p.179

A sign portentous?

If you are in Oxford, go outside right now and have a look at the total lunar eclipse.

On account of the fairly cloudless night, it should be a good show. It should be visible from most of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, as well as further afield, and peak between 10.24pm to 11.58pm.

It seems virtually impossible to get a decent photograph of a lunar eclipse on a P&S camera. Even once you have the exposure worked out (about 1/320th of a second at f/5.6 and ISO 50), the lack of major telephoto capabilities means it will always fill too little of the frame to yield a good image. A lens equivalent to 1000mm for 35mm film is what you need to get the moon to approach a full frame.

[Update: 10:49pm] From this vantage, the eclipse has reached totality. Our world is between Apollo and Artemis.

Another boring thesis post

Kellogg College, Oxford

I now have a 5000 words of convoluted first draft, 2500 words of much neater second draft, and half of two critical books left to read. Once that is done, I will finish writing the second draft, make nicer versions of two diagrams, migrate any vital ideas and all the footnotes from the first draft, and finally print the thing off and deposit it at Nuffield by a sensible time tomorrow night. This will result in a draft dramatically better than anything I could have submitted on Wednesday.

The whole process needs to be done again by the 15th: hopefully, with a solid draft done before I leave for Wales on the 9th.

PS. Does anyone remember the first major graph in An Inconvenient Truth? The one of rising CO2 levels, as observed in Hawaii? In 1957, a couple of years after that data collection began, the funding ran out and the monitoring ceased. It resumed in 1958 because of a big boost in American spending on scientific research after the Soviet Union launched Sputnik.

A new library, precious sources

St Peter’s College, Oxford

While I am a certifiable idiot for not realizing it earlier, it transpires that the Geography and the Environment Library on Mansfield Road has a treasure trove of thesis related books. In five minutes flat, I registered to use the library and take out their books. I now have an elegant stack of books on the history of climate change: just the sort I have been looking for, while despairing about the gap in my bibliography. Once I have finished Spencer Weart’s The Discovery of Global Warming, read John Hardy’s Climate Change: Causes, Effects, and Solutions, tracked down a few of their sources, re-read Northern Lights Against POPs, and done the same for that, I will be ready to re-draft my second chapter in a far superior form.

The library itself is also quite a welcoming place. I will link a photo of it here, once I have the chance to put one online. The main room, has a very attractive asymmetrically gabled roof. It is quiet, smells faintly of wood, and has high resolution monitors and blazing fast internet access. The maps on the wall, skylights, and windows overlooking the Balliol Sports Grounds are also reasons for which I am considering making this another thesis base of operations, in addition to Church Walk and the High Street Starbucks.

My last-minute assembly skills have failed me

According to my thesis schedule, I am meant to have my second chapter submitted now. Instead, I have 5200 words, only 1200 of which are about my case studies. Even within the analytical stuff, there is a lot of ambiguous sequencing, and a great many emphatic [ADD MORE HERE] editorial notes. It seems unlikely that this chapter can be completed tonight, regardless of caffeine consumption levels.

I need to:

  1. Complete the necessary reading, especially on pre-IPCC climate change science
  2. Trawl through the notes I have already made about sources, ideas, and themes
  3. Expand the case study portion of the chapter to about 5000 words, shifting the bits that are now independent into the case study narrative

I suppose I should get cracking on the first of those. The whole thing – three substantive chapters, a conclusion, and a revised introduction – needs to be submitted in 53 days. Time for another pot of coffee.

Noisy skies

Somerville College, Oxford

During the last day or so, there has been an unusually large amount of military air traffic over Oxford. Less than a minute ago, I saw a 101 Squadron Vickers VC-10 fly overhead, northwards (official site). The VC-10 is fairly unmistakable, due to the engine configuration: two on either side of the fuselage, back near the tail. Last night, we saw at least three large, slow moving transports heading in the same direction. I would have suspected that it was a Boeing C-17 Globemaster, from the 99 Squadron but apparently they only have one of those (official site).

They are probably flying to Brize Norton: the largest airbase operated by the Royal Air Force. It is located just eighteen miles west of here, between Carterton and Whitney. It might be an interesting place to visit at some point.

Quite possibly, the volume of traffic is connected with the recent British announcement that they are pulling forces out of Iraq. With 1,600 troops returning to the UK during the next few months, there must be a lot of gear and people to move around.

Exploring Oxford colleges

At the same time as the second chapter of my thesis is firming up, my initiative to visit and photograph all 39 colleges is proceeding apace. Today, I visited Somerville College (where Margaret Thatcher read chemistry, a factor that may have contributed to her eventual strong support for CFC regulation, despite her ideological leanings) as well as Kellogg, St. Peter’s, and Lincoln. Only Linacre, Mansfield, Oriel, Pembroke, St Cross, St Hilda’s, and Templeton College have been spared from my lenses as of now. That said, not all the photos I have taken in recent days have had the chance to be posted yet. When one is mired in academic work, it is good to have a reserve. Likewise, it is good to have a pattern of exploration, using a quad or coffee shop here or there to read a chapter or two, before moving on to the next target.

A tip for fellow explorers: make sure you speak to the porters, before wandering in. Particularly in the less well known colleges, they will be happy to let you in if you tell them that you are a student at a different college and have been wanting to have a look at some of those you haven’t seen previously. Among all the colleges I have visited so far, the porters at Kellogg and Lincoln have been the most helpful. The only colleges that have refused me admission (or demanded money) are Christ Church and Magdalen. While I understand that they risk being besieged by tourists, it is hardly appropriate to bar the foreign graduate students who are subsidizing their fine stonework and scores of undergraduates.

In any case, I expect that the collection will be complete by the time this site gets its 50,000th visit. That should be within the next two weeks, at which time I will be spending my days fretting about drafting chapter three.

Favourite reading spots in Oxford

Queen’s College, Oxford

One of the most telling things about a person’s personality may be which places they choose to do the masses of reading meant to dominate the lives of an Oxford student. There is a certain sort that appreciates the reading rooms in the Bodleian (and another sort forced there due to the location of necessary materials). Some people like the cold modernism of the Social Sciences Library, while others adore the grandeur of the Upper Camera.

Personally, I tend to stick to a collection of locations around the centre of town. These include the Wadham Library (more for a sense of connection to the college than because it is attractive or has useful materials), the Wadham MCR, the Codrington Library, the Upper Camera, and the Starbucks locations on the High Street and Cornmarket Street. Sometimes, if it is nice, the Wadham gardens get added to the rotation, especially the little area at the western edge of the private fellows’ garden that is a bit obscured by plants. That said, I probably read more in my room than in all other places put together – enormously more if you include things read on the computer.

What places do other residents appreciate? Are there any that I simply must try during the 125 days that remain to me here?

The Oxford Botanic Gardens

Magdalen College, Oxford

As places in Oxford go, the Botanic Gardens across from Magdalen College are a real jewel. They are peaceful, beautiful, intellectually engaging, and easily capable of yielding dozens of good photos, even if you have been there many times before.

During Oxford’s long winter, the greenhouses make for a particularly nice contrast both with the world outside and with each other. Some are arid and no warmer than the air outside (largely filled with interesting cacti); others are almost tropical in warmth and humidity and contain many plants normally seen only as foodstuffs – from coffee to black pepper, tea and ginger. Some of the flowers are also quite dramatic.

The gardens are free for students and university staff all year round, and simply open to everyone during the winter.

PS. The connector on my snazzy Ety headphones seems to be broken. Jostling it around even a little bit causes the sound to cut out on one side or the other. I will call them on Monday about having them repaired.