Producers of policy arguments

The policy analyst is a producer of policy arguments, more similar to a lawyer – a specialist in legal arguments – than to an engineer or scientist. His basic skills are not algorithmical but argumentative: the ability to probe assumptions critically, to produce and evaluate evidence, to keep many threads in hand, to draw for an argument from many disparate sources, to communicate effectively. He recognizes that to say anything of importance in public policy requires value judgments, which must be explained and justified, and is willing to apply his skills to any topic relevant to public discussion.

The image of the analyst as problem solver is misleading because the conclusions of policy analysis seldom can be rigorously proved. Demonstrative proof that a particular alternative ought to be chosen in a particular situation is possible only if the context of the policy problem is artificially restricted. One must assume that there is no disagreement about the appropriate formulation of the problem, no conflict of values and interests, and that the solution is, somehow, self-executing. Also, the analyst should have all the relevant information, including full knowledge of present and future preferences and all consequences of all possible alternatives.

Majone, G. (1989). “Analysis as Argument”, p. 21-22 in Majone. Evidence, Argument, and Persuasion in the Policy Process. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Automation and the jobs of the future

A recent article in The Economist discussed the likely impacts of technological development on jobs, with an emphasis on which jobs are especially vulnerable to being replaced with hardware or software automation.

The article included a chart listing some of the jobs projected to be most and least vulnerable, respectively:

Probability that computerization will lead to job losses within the next two decades, 2013

Some bad news for both people working for telemarketing firms and everyone with a telephone is that the telemarketers of the future are expected to be robots.

More disruptive, in terms of people’s career planning, is the set of presently white collar jobs potentially at risk to automation: accountants and auditors, technical writers, and real estate agents are all identified as being at risk. Pharmacists can probably be added to that list.

For now, dentists, athletic trainers, and clergy remain safe from being replaced by software or robots.

Pushing back against internet surveillance

An international effort is being made today to fight back against internet surveillance.

If you wish to take part, I suggest doing so by downloading a version of the GNU Privacy Guard for your operating system, in order to encrypt your emails. Gpg4Win is for Windows, while GPGTools is for Mac OS.

Downloading the TOR Browser Bundle is also a good idea.

Lastly, you may want to learn how to use your operating system’s built-in disk encryption: BitLocker for Windows and FileVault for Mac OS.

None of this is likely to protect you from the NSA / CSEC / GCHQ, but it will make ubiquitous surveillance a bit harder to enforce.

Open thread: the cost of renewable energy

Especially in comparison with energy conservation, carbon capture and storage, and nuclear power, much of the debate about renewable energy as a climate change solution concerns cost. Which forms are most and least affordable? How do they compare to other energy options? How should intermittancy and energy storage issues be incorporated?

Another set of questions concerns the rate and scale of deployment. How much of the carbon challenge can renewables address, and how quickly can they do so relative to the timescales necessary to stabilize emissions safely?

Bounded rationality and policy agendas

If individuals have limited attention spans, so must organizations. The notion of policy agendas recognizes the “bottleneck” that exists in the agenda that any policy-making body addresses (Cobb & Elder 1972). These attention processes are not simply related to task environments — problems can go for long periods of time without attracting the attention of policy makers (Rochefort & Cobb 1994). A whole style of politics emerges as actors must strive to cope with the limits in the attentiveness of policy makers — basically trying to attract allies to their favored problems and solutions. This style of politics depends on connections driven by time-dependent and often emotional attention processes rather than a deliberate search for solutions (Cohen et al 1972, March & Olsen 1989, Kingdon 1996, Baumgartner & Jones 1993).

Because attention processes are time dependent and policy contexts change temporally, connections between problems and solutions have time dependency built into them. As an important consequence, policy systems dominated by boundedly rational decision makers will at best reach local rather than global optima. Because of the time dependence of attentional processes, all policy processes will display considerable path dependence (March 1994).

– Jones, Bryan D. “Bounded Rationality.” Annual Political Science Review. 1999. 2:297-321.

The powers of Canada’s prime minister

Remarkably, this (microfilm copy of) a memorandum prepared in October 1935 by the Privy Council Office is the closest thing Canada has to written constitutional text on the role of the prime minister:

The Committee of the Privy Council, on the recommendation of the Right Honourable W.L. Mackenzie King, the Prime Minister, submit the following Memorandum regarding certain of the functions of the Prime Minister,-

  1. A Meeting of a Committee of the Privy Council is at the call of the Prime Minister and, in his absence, of that of the senior Privy Councillor, if the President of the Council be absent;
  2. The quorum of the Council being four, no submission, for approval to the Governor General, can be made with a less number than the quorum;
  3. A Minister cannot make recommendations to Council affecting the discipline of the Department of another Minister;
  4. The following recommendations are the special prerogative of the Prime Minister:

Dissolution and Convocation of Parliament:

Appointment of –

Privy Councillors;

Cabinet Ministers

Lieutenant Governors;

(including leave of absence to same);

Provincial Administrators;

Speaker of the Senate;

Chief Justices of all Courts;

Senators;

SubCommittees of Council;

Treasury Board;

Committee of Internal Economy, House of Commons;

Deputy Heads of Departments;

Librarians of Parliament;

Crown Appointments in both Houses of Parliament

Governor General’s Secretary Staff;

Recommendations in any Department.

The council advice that this Minute be issued under the Privy Seal, and that a certified copy thereof be attached, under the Great Seal of Canada, to the Commission of each Minister.

All which is respectfully submitted for Your Excellency’s approval.

The note was scanned by James W.J. Bowden.

The prime minister is not mentioned in the Constitution Act, 1982, though section VI enumerates the powers of parliament.

See also: Smiley, Donald. Canada in Question: Federalism in the Eighties. 1980. p. 17 (hardcover)

Many meetings

Today I had the extremely good fortune to speak for more than an hour with Peter Russell – one of Canada’s leading constitutional experts – about my forthcoming comp.

Tomorrow, I am meeting with Rod Haddow. Wednesday, with Graham White and Peter Loewen.

Because Robarts library is open late, I was able to pick up a book Dr. Russell recommended, and which I should be able to get well into before I go to sleep.

While there is doubtless a lot of stress and some tedium, there are certainly elements of the life of the grad student which are satisfying, and which could not be replicated elsewhere.

Tolkien giving voice to all

During daily exercise, I have been listening to Tolkien books. Since childhood, I have remembered how he described the thoughts and speech of orcs, but I had forgotten that he did the same for a fox:

A fox passing through the wood on business of his own stopped several minutes and sniffed. “Hobbits!” he thought. “Well, what next? I have heard of strange doings in this land, but I have seldom heard of a hobbit sleeping out of doors under a tree. Three of them! There’s something mighty queer behind this.” He was quite right, but he never found out more about this.