Bletchley Park today

Ottawa railway bridge

Bletchley Park, the English manor where codebreaking was undertaken during the Second World War, has been falling into disrepair due to lack of funds. This seems especially ungrateful, given the extremely important role the signals intelligence developed there played in the war. In particular, the decipherments helped to clear the Atlantic of U-boats, keep the United Kingdom supplied, and eventually shift the people and equipment required for D-Day and the retaking of the continent.

Work done at Bletchley was also important in relation to the emergence of modern computers. If there are historical sites worth preserving, this is surely one of them. Thankfully, the Heritage Lottery fund now seems likely to provide funding.

The fact that the codebreaking work done at Bletchley was not publicly announced until the 1970s makes it doubly important to tell the story well now. For decades, people who worked there had to respond with awkward silence when asked how they contributed to the war effort. Their extraordinary contribution deserves to be well marked today.

Carbon v. CO2

Rideau Street intersection, Ottawa

When it comes to carbon pricing, there is one slightly confusing element that should be clarified. Carbon taxes are sometimes expressed as a price per tonne of carbon dioxide (CO2), and sometimes as a price per tonne of carbon. One tonne of carbon is equivalent to 3.67 tonnes of carbon dioxide. As such, a price of $10 per tonne of carbon dioxide is equivalent to a price of $36.70 per tonne of carbon.

The reason for this is basic. One mole of carbon weighs 12 grams. (A mole is a quantity of matter equivalent to 6.02 x 10^23 molecules or atoms. It is like a much bigger version of a dozen.) Each oxygen in a molecule of CO2 contributes 16 grams. As such, a mole of CO2 weighs 44 grams, while a mole of carbon weighs 12. The ratio is 3.67 to one.

Explaining greenhouse gases

Twinned bicycles

Over at ScienceBlogs, Paul Revere has written a three part primer (one, two, three) about the physics of climate change. It begins with the nature of electromagnetism and moves on to discuss the energy relationship between the Earth, the sun, and outer space. It is the sort of thing that feels very basic, but which is nonetheless important to understand through-and-through. In particular, the explanation of black bodies in the second portion is clear and informative.

The discussion of Wien’s Displacement Law is also quite informative. The law holds that every object in the universe emits electromagnetic radiation, and that the most common frequency exists in relation to that object’s temperature in degrees Kelvin. To go from one to the other, divide 2898 by the temperature in degrees Kelvin. The quotient is the peak wavelength, expressed in microns. Human body temperature is about 310 degrees Kelvin, so our peak electromagnetic wavelength is about 9.35 microns long – in the infrared portion of the electromagnetic (EM) spectrum. Since we are pretty similar in temperature to the surface of the Earth, the wavelengths radiated by the planet are in a nearby portion of the spectrum.

It is is ability of greenhouse gases to absorb this infrared energy that lets them prevent energy from returning to space. They are transparent to the dominant wavelengths emitted by the sun, but opaque to those radiating from the Earth. Increasing their concentrations in the atmosphere (through fossil fuel burning, deforestation, etc), causes more of the energy that comes to the Earth from the sun to remain in the atmosphere. As a result of the extra energy, the temperature rises. Incidentally, this is also why people sometimes mention using ground-based mirrors to fight climate change. They reflect light at the same peak wavelength as that of the sun (which passes relatively unimpeded through the atmosphere). By re-radiating at that visible wavelength, rather than the infrared one favoured by greenhouse gases, the energy can be made to escape again. Of course, it would take a massive number of mirrors to balance out the effect of increased greenhouse gas concentrations on the EM emissions from all non-mirrored areas.

One upshot of understanding the nature of these gases is the ability to appreciate how their increased concentration simply must add more energy to our planetary system. The scientific questions that remain are about precisely what changes that energy will generate, and at what rate. The three posts are well worth reading in their entirety.

[Update: 17 December 2009] See also: Greenhouse gases other than CO2

Tomorrow’s electrical generation: distributed or concentrated?

There is an interesting debate ongoing on the Gristmill blog about whether the future of electrical generation lies primarily with big centralized power plants, like today, or with distributed systems.

Naturally, there are many factors that influence which is more attractive, many of which are regulatory rather than inherent to the physics or economics. I suspect the key dynamics will be the relative efficiency of differently sized facilities, the rate at which low-loss high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission emerges, and the rate at which financing options for small facilities proliferate. Other important considerations will be the rate of improvement in the economics of solar photovoltaic systems, as well as the development and deployment of demand management and energy storage options for the grid.

In any event, it is doubtful whether one approach or the other will ever truly dominate. In all probability, a low-carbon society will incorporate both approaches in keeping with the strengths of different technologies and the needs of different areas.

Genetically modified potatoes

Wicker spiral

As is virtually always the case when reading Michael Pollan’s work, The Botany of Desire makes me want to share virtually every page and idea with friends. While a full review will have to wait, one thing that struck me while reading tonight is the situation with genetically engineered Bt crops, as discussed in the last section of the book.

Monsanto’s spuds

Bt is short for Bacillus thuringiensis: a soil bacteria that produces a poison that slays many crop-eating insects. Because it is naturally occurring, the bacterially derived poison is even permitted in many systems of organic agriculture. Genetically modified crops like Monsanto’s NewLeaf tomatoes have had the gene for the manufacture of the poison introduced into their own genetic material.

This is done in one of two relatively crude-seeming ways. Either the gene is inserted into a pathogen that is then allowed to infect the cells of the plant to be modified or DNA is literally shot into the target plant using a .22 caliber ‘gene gun.’ In most cases, the genes don’t end up in the right part of the target plant’s genome. In no cases do we comprehensively appreciate what kind of changes we are creating.

What we do know is this: when we create an environment where pests are exposed to a monoculture of Bt-generating plants, the pests will eventually evolve resistance. According to Pollan, Monsanto expect this to happen to Bt in about thirty years.

This is shocking when you think about it. Firstly, it reveals a kind of extreme short-termism in planning – the expectation that we can keep running on the treadmill and finding new solutions. Secondly, it reveals considerable unethical selfishness. Bt is used by many people other than Monsanto and Monsanto’s customers. The Bt-modified plants threaten to ruin the substance for everybody. Thirdly, it should be remembered that it is not only the resilience of the GM crops that may be undermined. Naturally occurring organisms defending themselves with Bt toxin and similar compounds may suddenly face invulnerable pests, with unknown consequences for nature.

Perhaps the most depressing thing about this section in Pollan’s book is the convincing argument that the above is actually an improvement over conventional potato production. To take the most egregious example, potatoes are regularly sprayed with an organophosphate pesticide called Monitor in order to kill aphids. This is because aphids carry a virus that gives potatoes brown spots inside. People don’t want to eat such potatoes, so farmers respond by spraying the plants with a substance akin to the deadliest of military nerve gasses.

The bigger picture

The more I read about energy usage, climatic science, agriculture, and fisheries, the more deeply green I become. It is pretty challenging to read something as compelling as Michael Pollan’s accounts of industrial agriculture and not begin to profoundly question the kind of soft-green liberal environmentalism that claims that there are just a few environmental externalities that we need to sort out before capitalism as practiced becomes sustainable.

P.S. Names like NewLeaf remind me instantly of Margaret Atwood’s excellent novel Oryx and Crake: essential reading for those trying to make sense of biotechnology’s brave new world.

Stupid comment forms

The following is a short rant intended for all those who design comment forms on websites:

When you have a box that says ‘homepage’ or ‘website’ it is absurd to make people type http://www.mysite.com. The HTTP means Hypertext Transfer Protocol. Every website in the universe uses this transfer protocol, so making someone type it is always redundant.

The same goes for ‘www.’ Homepages and websites are on the world wide web. They aren’t mail servers or any other sort of networked beast.

In conclusion, I should be able to type sindark.com and your comment form should understand it.

P.S. Even more unforgivable than sites that produce errors when ‘http’ and ‘www’ are lacking are the small minority that produce absurd URLs when you enter a site name in X.com format. I have seen sites where putting that yields a link to: “http://www.siteIamcommentingon.com/X.com.” Nightmare!

P.P.S. See www is deprecated for the argument that having to say ‘www’ is unnecessary in all circumstances, not just when filling out comment forms.

Fuel cells are a pipe dream

Seven reasons why hydrogen fuel cell cars will never be a commonly deployed technology:

  1. You get hydrogen by cracking hydrocarbons or electrolyzing water. In either case, you are better off cutting out the hydrogen production step. You can burn the hydrocarbons directly (or make liquids from solid ones) and you can use the electricity to drive electric vehicles. Pretty much any time you make hydrogen, you are using up a better fuel.
  2. Cooling and compressing hydrogen for storage takes a lot of energy. Even liquid hydrogen has less energy per litre than gasoline.
  3. We would need to build an infrastructure of hydrogen liquification stations and pipelines.
  4. Storing enough hydrogen to travel a decent distance is difficult.
  5. Arguably, storing that quantity of hydrogen in a car is quite dangerous.
  6. Fuel cells are very expensive, partly because they require platinum catalysts. They are also relatively fragile.
  7. Fuel cells that produce water as a by-product might have trouble in freezing cold conditions.

Granted, a few of these factors might change. We might develop an ideal system for storing hydrogen or develop fuel cells with cheaper catalysts. Even so, the number of objections is large. Forced to bet, my guess for the ground transport of the future is electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids for urban areas and biofuel or coal-to-liquid powered vehicles for long-distance travel.

Seeking a messenger bag

Backpacks are too hot for Ottawa in summer, but I need something in which to carry around my third level gear (first level gear goes in trouser pockets, second level in rain jacket pockets). Bicycle panniers are no good for this task, both because they don’t have the right sort of pockets and because they are too awkward to carry when not cycling. As a result, I am thinking about getting a bike courier style messenger bag.

Features I want:

  1. Very robust construction
  2. Comfortable shoulder strap
  3. High level of water resistance
  4. Numerous internal pockets of useful sizes
  5. Ideally, a padded pocket for laptops up to 15″ or so.

Does anybody have a bag or brand they especially like? The Timbuk2 Laptop Messenger is a possibility. I am also considering some of the offerings from PAC Designs. I am willing to pay a fair bit for something that really meets my needs and will last for many years.

iTunes movie rentals

Ezra Pound quote

Last night, Emily and I tried renting a film through iTunes. I think it’s fair to say that this is another media technology that Apple got right. There are endless problems with systems that promise to let you buy films in the form of downloads. There are limitations on usage, and no guarantees that you can use them on future devices. Renting is quite different. Apple offers a service akin to that of a video store for a comparable price and without the bother of picking up and returning discs. With a bit of equally convenient competition, costs may even fall further.

Indeed, it seems pretty fair to predict that video shops have no future among those customers with computers and broadband access. Eventually, web based services will offer far more films at similar quality and far greater convenience.

Personally, I am rather looking forward to the day when it will be possible to spend $4-5 for two days worth of access to most any film ever made.