Trinity in two days

Welcome graffiti

Being able to cycle around Oxford without a jacket is most enjoyable. With the thesis submitted and nothing to worry about other than a couple of essays and exams, Trinity term should be a warm and relatively relaxing end to the Oxford experience.

Of course, the four three-hour exams in the middle of June will keep it from being too relaxing. Likewise, the two research papers on international law and the need to complete whatever ‘core’ reading hasn’t been completed over the last two years. Going all the way back to notes from September 2005 on the causes of WWI, then all the way through IR theory, twentieth century history, the developing world, and international law will be a good bit of work. That said, it will also be our first opportunity to see the M.Phil program as an integrated whole, even if we are expressly forbidden from repeating material from the core seminars in the exams for the optional papers, and vice versa.

I am sure everyone is looking forward to the period between June 16th and 29th. Our exams will be done, but we are all required to stay in Oxford in case the examiners decide to give us an oral examination on the 29th. I will be able to get the last college for my photo collection, as well as finally try the whole punting/croquet/Pimms afternoon that is the stereotypical Oxford summer activity.

Dramatic pause

Angel, Little Clarendon Street, Oxford

This morning was your standard session of attempting thesis writing. This afternoon has been markedly more unusual: punctuated with unexpected encounters. Such novelty and dynamism is a demonstration of why Oxford is a valuable place to spend time.

Tomorrow morning, it is back to the rushed and imminent portion of the slog.

Connections

Plant in wall

One thing about studying climate change is that you never know where you will find new information. Have a look at this segment from James Burke’s Connections. He is talking about the Little Ice Age, which began in the 16th century. Much of what he says about adaptation is relevant, in an indirect way, to the kind of climate change being experienced now. I remember being terribly disappointed when his column vanished from the back of Scientific American – my staple reading before shifting to The Economist. Here is another short clip from Burke, also relevant to my thesis project. Here is yet another.

Note that Wikipedia has an entry on the Little Ice Age, the Medieval Warm Period, and the IPCC. It is badly in need of being improved.

Devon photos III

Trees and sky

The 96 acres of the former Wadham estate contain a lot of nice plant life.

Black sheep

They also have a flock of decorative black sheep that wander in the valley that runs down to Branscombe and the sea.

Bench and plants

The light on our last evening was especially lovely: warm sunset light, filtered through a translucent cloud that reduced the contrast.

Plants in Devon

More interesting looking plants.

Cooking pots

With the support of the Wadham Foundation, we had tasty food throughout our week.

T-192 hours

Interesting plant

Since the thesis needs to be dropped off for binding in eight days, it will surprise nobody to hear that I am working energetically on it. More than anything I have worked on before, it is a vast, sprawling thing. The main tasks now are consolidation and tidying. I very much hope to have a copy sent off to my supervisor by tomorrow night.

Devon photos II

Thatched house

This house, just across the back alley from the place where we were staying, looks exactly like the white rabbit’s house from Alice in Wonderland doesn’t it? We’ll smoke the monster out!

Wadham house

Braced against the wall, this photo shows John contemplating an interesting archway in the former home of Dorothy and Nicholas Wadham.

Dorothy Wadham’s bedroom

The former bedroom of Dorothy Wadham, though the bed is a recent reconstruction.

John Jenkins reading

While I was concentrating on getting my thesis written, most other members of the trip were more concerned with reading. While much was academic, Harry Potter and crime-fighting monks were not wholly excluded.

Milan Ilnyckyj’s thesis workspace

In my hermitage, I worked to compile notes and thoughts into a thesis draft.

Minimum temperatures

Door bolt

Most of the climate change discussion has centred on global mean temperatures, but it is also important to consider minimum temperatures. The degree to which winters are properly cold has important effects: notably, on the distributions of pests and disease. The temperature a species can tolerate serves as a limit to its expansion, so warm winters can help undesirable creatures to spread into new areas. This is akin to how it is important for a course of antibiotics to kill 100% of the target bacteria. If it does not, a fullblown new infection is likely, once the drugs are discontinued.

The ranges of ants and bees have been extending northward in Europe and North America. Likewise, the populations of ticks carrying Lyme Disease and malarial mosquitoes have been shifting northward, along with those carrying Dengue Fever and Japanese encephalitis. This is part of a general trend in which species being displaced by climatic changes (See: Thomas Lovejoy notes). The fact that whole ecosystems do not move northwards and to higher altitudes at the same rate causes further problems, as predation relationships are disrupted.

These kinds of higher level effects are likely to become better understood as further research is carried out. The depth of information has already increased a great deal: the fourth IPCC report, which is in the process of being released, is based upon a review of more than 1,000 academic studies. The Third Assessment Report, in 2001, was based on about 100.

PS. The trio of WordPress sites have been upgraded to version 2.1.3. If you spot any problems, please let me know.

Devon photos I

For those who were confused, the photos appearing while I was in Devon were not, in fact, taken while I was there. I had set them up to appear at regular intervals in my absence, so as to have some kind of new content appearing on the site. These are the first images from Devon that I have posted on this page:

Barn in Devon

This is the main area of the converted barn in which we were staying. I was the only group member to sleep in the smaller, quieter, and much colder ‘annex.’ We visited the main house once, for dinner.

Branscombe, Devon

This OS map shows the countryside surrounding the Edge Barton estate, where we were staying. On our first full day in Devon, we walked down the valley to the coastline.

Muddy walk

The path down to Branscombe was a muddy one.

South coast of England

Here is the south coast of England. If this picture had been taken in the opposite direction, a large grounded ship could be seen.

Pheasant

Pheasants are pretty fearless animals. The camera was about a foot away when I took this.