Back on October 13th, FiveThirtyEight.com projected that Obama would win the presidential election by 351 electoral college votes to McCain’s 187. Their final projection, based on yesterday’s polls, was Obama 349, McCain 189.
Tonight, we get to see how good their projections really were (provided the election doesn’t degenerate into another drawn-out legal fiasco, that is).
[Update: 2:10am] The victory was decisive and exceptional. It cannot help but make a person more optimistic about our collective future.
Author: Milan
In the spring of 2005, I graduated from the University of British Columbia with a degree in International Relations and a general focus in the area of environmental politics. In the fall of 2005, I began reading for an M.Phil in IR at Wadham College, Oxford.
Outside school, I am very interested in photography, writing, and the outdoors. I am writing this blog to keep in touch with friends and family around the world, provide a more personal view of graduate student life in Oxford, and pass on some lessons I've learned here.
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John McCain Concession Speech
At this point, it looks likely that both FiveThirtyEight projections underestimated the Obama margin of victory. If he wins in North Carolina, his final figure will be 364 electoral college votes.
Previous winning results:
Bush (2004): 286
Bush (2000): 271
Clinton (1996): 379
Clinton (1992): 370
Bush Sr. (1988): 426
Reagan (1984): 525
Reagan (1980): 489
Carter (1976): 297
Nixon (1972): 520
Nixon (1968): 301
LBJ (1964): 486
Kennedy (1960): 303