The affect heuristic

The dominance of conclusions over arguments is most pronounced where emotions are involved. The psychologist Paul Slovic has proposed an affect heuristic in which people let their likes and dislikes determine their beliefs about the world. Your political preference determines the arguments that you find compelling. If you like the current health policy, you believe its benefits are substantial and its costs more manageable than the costs of alternatives. If you are a hawk in your attitude toward other nations, you probably think they are relatively weak and likely to submit to your country’s will. If you are a dove, you probably think they are strong and will not be easily coerced. Your emotional attitude to such things as irradiated food, red meat, nuclear power, tattoos, or motorcycles drives your beliefs about their benefits and their risks. If you dislike any of these things, you probably believe its risks are high and its benefits negligible.

Kahneman, Daniel. Thinking Fast and Slow. Random House Canada, 2011. p. 103

2 thoughts on “The affect heuristic”

  1. Trump voters feel very differently about things now that he’s won, our new poll shows

    https://www.politico.com/poll-trump-voters-opinion-fraud-economy

    Donald Trump’s supporters thought voter fraud could determine the election outcome — until he won.

    Heading into Election Day, nearly 9 in 10 Trump voters said fraud was a serious issue. Afterward, just a bit over one-third said so.

    Trump’s victory over Vice President Kamala Harris has scrambled public opinion about a range of other issues, too. For example, his supporters were also more likely to feel good about the economy after the election — while Harris supporters adopted a more negative outlook.

    Those are among the results of a new POLITICO|Morning Consult poll, designed to measure change in public opinion before and after the election. The results largely track with recent consumer sentiment data and comments from Republican leaders.

  2. “A week before the election, just 8 percent of self-identified Trump voters described the economy as on the “right track,” the polling found. But after Trump’s victory, that number swung to 28 percent — still a minority, but a substantial swing in a span of just a few weeks when economic conditions did not change dramatically.

    On the flip side, Harris supporters were far less likely to say the economy was on the right track after the election, with just 46 percent saying so, down from 59 percent the week before Election Day.”

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *