At several points in the past, Arctic native groups including the Inuit have been effectively involved in the development of international regimes for environmental protection. Perhaps most significant was the role of the Inuit Circumpolar Conference in the development of the Stockholm Convention on Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs). Studies done on the human health impact of Arctic POPs on the Inuit provided a big part of the scientific basis for the agreement. Arctic native groups were also effective at pressing their moral claim: chemicals being manufactured elsewhere were poisoning their environment and threatening their way of life.
A similar claim can be made about climate change, though the probable outcome is a lot more negative for Arctic native groups. Relatively few states and companies manufactured the bulk of POPs and, in most cases, less harmful chemicals can be used in their place. The economic costs of phasing out POPs were relatively modest. While the costs of dealing with climate change are a lot lower than the costs that will be incurred through inaction, they are nonetheless many orders of magnitude greater than the costs associated with abatement of POP use.
The threat posed to the Inuit by climate change is also quite a bit more far-reaching. It is entirely possible that the whole Arctic icecap will be gone within twenty years, or even sooner. 2007 was by far the worst year ever recorded for Arctic sea ice. Without summer sea ice, the Arctic ecosystem seems certain to change profoundly. Given the reliance of traditional Inuit lifestyles upon hunting terrestrial and marine mammals, it seems like such conditions would make it impossible to live as the Inuit have lived for millenia. This isn’t even a matter of worst-case scenarios. Even without significant new feedback effects, summer Arctic sea ice is likely to vanish by mid century. Increasing recognition of this partly explains the ongoing scramble to claim Arctic sub-sea mineral rights.
As with small island states, there doesn’t seem to be enormously much hope for avoiding fundamental and perhaps irreversible change in the Arctic.
Ice, ice, maybe (not)
Must-see ice-sheet TV
Do you want the latest data — some not yet published — and the best post-IPCC scientific predictions on the stunning collapse of Arctic ice and unexpected shrinking of the Greenland (and Antarctic) ice sheets? Then you should definitely watch this C-SPAN video of yesterday’s American Meteorological Society seminar.
The seminar is by three of the world’s top cryosphere experts: Dr. Mark Serreze (NOAA), Scott Luthcke (NASA), and Dr. Konrad Steffen (CIRES)…
It is very safe to say the Arctic Sea will be essentially ice-free by 2030, and I’d personally bet on 2020.
“The most interesting presentation to me was the last one, by Konrad Steffen, who made a convincing case that the IPCC is “underestimating the rate of sea level rise” this century significantly. He expects one meter or more by 2100. The modelers are busy at work trying to account for ice dynamics in ice-sheet collapse — but it may take four or five years for them to do that. When they are finished, sea-level-rise estimates for this century are likely to double or triple.”
For anyone interested in the Arctic and the changing ways of life of the Innuit people, I recommend a novel by Kevin Patterson called “Consumption”. It is interesting, easy to read and compelling.
Happy Birthday Milan! I wish you all the best always and hope that this will be your best year yet! I look so much to seeing you at Christmas. I love you, your mom
Canada’s PM pilloried over climate-change shuffle; rich nations urged to ante up
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Afghanistan on the brink
Stumbling into chaos: Afghanistan on the brink. A report from the Senlis Council think tank claims that the Taliban has a permanent presence in more than half of Afghan territory and the country is in serious danger of falling back into their hands. The Canadian and British governments disagree.
Climate change in the North Pole can be a double edge sword
November 29, 2007
Scientists have predicted that by 2070 to 2090, the North Pole area can be ice free in summer. Some are even afraid that by 2040, large part of the ice in the arctic will be melted in summer.
This will be a disaster for about 250 000 indigenous people such as Inuit people in Canada and Russia, Eskimos and Sami people in Russia, north Sweden, Norway and Finland. They might totally lose their homeland and life will be extremely difficult for them. But on the other hand, it sounds like a good news for ‘petrolholics’ in many other countries, says Mr. Geir Westgaard, special advisor to the Norwegian Foreign Minister.